Sunday, June 28, 2015

The Week Ahead: Jobs, manufacturing, holiday

The most followed measure of American economic progress, the employment report, will be published a day early on Thursday, having been moved back to accommodate Friday's observation of the Independence Day holiday in the United States. Markets in London, Tokyo and Sydney will be open.

Employment statistics and the unemployment rate will be released at 8:30 a.m. New York time on Thursday, and the U.S. markets will be closed on Friday and will close 2-hours early on Thursday.

The jobs numbers will be given a sneak preview with the release Wednesday at 8:15 a.m. of the private-sector ADP employment report.

One other potential market mover is out during the week: The Institute of Supply Management manufacturing survey, on Wednesday at 10 .m.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The average hourly workweek in manufacturing from the employment report, at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.

Manufacturers new orders for consumer goods and materials from the factory orders report, at 10 a.m. Thursday.

Vendor performance, or the deliveries times index, from the ISM manufacturing survey, at 10 a.m. Wednesday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Manufacturers' new orders for non-defense capital goods from the factory orders report, at 10 a.m. Thursday.

Average weekly initial jobless claims, at 8:30 a.m. Thursday. 

Items of interest, arranged by day:

Monday: Pending home sales at 10 a.m. and the Dallas Federal Reserve manufacturing survey at 10:30 a.m.

Tuesday: The S&P Case-Shiller home price index in 20 metro areas at 9 a.m., the Chicago PMI  at 9:45 a.m. and the consumer confidence report at 10 a.m.

Wednesday:  Motor vehicle sales throughout the day, the ADP employment report at 9:15 a.m., the PMI manufacturing index at 9:45 a.m., the ISM manufacturing index at 10 a.m., construction spending at 10 a.m.  and petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m.

Thursday: The employment report at 8:30 a.m., jobless claims at 89:30 a.m. and factory orders at 10 a.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate based on U.S. Treasury yields, which presently stands at 1.73%.

Treasury Debt

  • 4-week: Announcement Monday 11 a.m., auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 3-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 6-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 2-year: Settlement Tuesday.
  • 3-year: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 5-year: Settlement Tuesday.
  • 7-year: Settlement Tuesday.
  • 10-year: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 30-year: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 30-year: Settlement Tuesday.

A single Fed official, a lone Sworn Brother of the Night's Watch, keeping vigil on the rhetorical Wall that protects American monetary policy, makes a public appearance during the week.

St. Louis Fed Pres. James Bullard, a Federal Open Market Committee alternate, delivers opening remarks at this Homer Jones Memorial Lecture series in St. Louis.

Analytical universe

This week I shall be analyzing new bull and bear signals among 500 large-cap stocks and exchange-traded funds.

Good trading, and enjoy the holiday.

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, June 28, 2015


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