Tim Bovee, Private Trader: Tuesday's Prospects: Round 2

Monday, August 11, 2014

Tuesday's Prospects: Round 2

CAG, a potential bull play, is the lone survivor of my initial analysis of Monday's markets. (See "Tuesday's Prospects".)

It failed to make it past the second round based on its bearish chart.

Click on chart to enlarge.

CAG 14 months daily bars

The price has been in a distinctive bull trend since Aug. 5, 2013, when it reached its highest point since the Great Recession low in 2008. The bull signal, based on this chart, is simply an artifact of the drunken wanderings normally seen within a trend.

I don't intend to do further analysis of CAG and plan to place no trade, even if the bull signal is confirmed in Tuesay's trading.

-- Tim Bovee, Fukuoka, Japan, Aug. 11, 2014 New York time

References

While traveling, I'm performing my analysis on a smaller universe of symbols and on an altered schedule. See "August Schedule" for details.

My shorter-term trading rules can be read here. My longer-term trading rules can be read here. And the classic Turtle Trading rules on which my rules are based can be read here.

My chart assessments are based on Elliott wave analysis, which tracks patterns in price movements. The principal practitioner of Elliott wave analysis is Robert Prechter at Elliott Wave International. His book, Elliott Wave Principle, is a must-read for people interested in this form of analysis, as is his most recent publication, Visual Guide to Elliott Wave Trading.

Several web sites summarize Elliott wave theory, among them, Investopedia, StockCharts and Wikipedia.

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.