Sunday, August 3, 2014

Friday's Prospects: Round 2

Note: This second round of analysis of the first-round survivors among Friday's prospects is being posted several days late because I was travelling all day Friday.

Two symbols survived the first round of analysis of Friday's potential trades. (See "Friday's Prospects" for details of the first round of analysis.)

AMZN confirmed its bear signal in trading on Friday, closing below its 20-day price channel. A first look at the three-year chart confirms that it's bearish, having peaked in late January. Zacks Investment Research, the service I use to jump-start my fundamental analysis, rates AMZN as bearish, confirming the technical bear signal.

COP broke below its price channel immediately after an earnings announcement, and it confirmed the bear signal on Friday by trading below the earnings-day low. However, despite a recent decline, it is far too early to say if the chart has moved into bear phase. Also, Zacks gives COP a bullish rating, contrary to the technical signal.

I intend to post a full analysis of AMZN as a potential bear play.

-- Tim Bovee, Fukuoka, Japan, Aug. 3, 2014 New York time


While traveling, I'm performing my analysis on a smaller universe of symbols and on an altered schedule. See "August Schedule" for details.

My shorter-term trading rules can be read here. My longer-term trading rules can be read here. And the classic Turtle Trading rules on which my rules are based can be read here.

My chart assessments are based on Elliott wave analysis, which tracks patterns in price movements. The principal practitioner of Elliott wave analysis is Robert Prechter at Elliott Wave International. His book, Elliott Wave Principle, is a must-read for people interested in this form of analysis, as is his most recent publication, Visual Guide to Elliott Wave Trading

Several web sites summarize Elliott wave theory, among them, Investopedia, StockCharts and Wikipedia.

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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