Sunday, August 3, 2014

The Week Ahead: International trade

International trade, which calculates the U.S. trade deficit or surplus with the rest of the world, is the lone blockbuster economics report due out this week. It will be published on Thursday at 8:30 a.m. New York time.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

Manufacturers new orders for consumer goods and materials from the factory orders report, Tuesday at 10 a.m.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial jobless claims, at 8:30 a.m. Thursday. 

Other items of interest:

Tuesday: The factory orders report and the Institute of Supply Management non-manufacturing index, both at 10 a.m.

Wednesday:  Petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m.

Friday: Non-farm business productivity and costs, covering labor efficiency and its cost, at 8:30 a.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily.


None from among the Federal Reserve glitterati have scheduled public appearances during the week.

Analytical universe

This week I shall be analyzing new bull and bear signals among 261 large-cap and exchange-traded funds, a smaller pool than usual in order to lesson processing time while I travel in East Asia.

Trading calendar

By my rules, I'm trading September options and later for the short legs of vertical, diagonal and calendar spreads and covered calls, and for all legs of butterfly spreads and iron condors. I'm trading November options and later for single calls and puts as well as straddles. Shares, of course, are good at any time.

Good trading.

-- Tim Bovee, Fukuoka, Japan, Aug. 3 2014 New York time

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