Sunday, May 11, 2014

The Week Ahead: Retail, industry, housing, prices and Yellen

A variety of major economic reports will add a dash of spice from time to time during the trading week.

Three sector reports are on the calendar. Retail sales report will be published Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. New York time, industrial production on Thursday at 9:15 a.m. and housing starts on Friday at 8:30 a.m.

Inflation and deflation will be tracked in two reports. The producer price index is out Wednesday, followed by the consumer price index on Thursday, both at 8:30 a.m.

And the Philadelphia Federal Reserve survey, out Thursday at 10 a.m., will provide an overview of activity in the mid-Atlantic region, an avatar for the economy as a whole.

Also, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen speaks on small businesses and the economy to market National Small Business Week, at 6:30 p.m. Thursday.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial jobless claims, at 8:30 a.m. Thursday. 

Building permits for new private homes from the housing starts report, at 8:30 a.m. Friday.

The index of consumer expectations from the Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment report, at 9:55 a.m. Friday.

Other reports of interest:

Monday: The Treasury budget, showing the federal deficit, at 2 p.m.

Tuesday: Import and export prices at 8:30 a.m. and business inventories at 10 a.m.

Wednesday: The Home Builders housing market index at 10 a.m. and petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m.

Thursday:   The Empire State manufacturing survey of conditions in New York at 8:30 a.m., the Treasury Department international capital report at 9 a.m. and the Federal Reserve money supply report at 4:30 p.m.

Friday: The Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment report, at 9:55 a.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily.


In addition to Yellen, two other members of the Federal Open Market Committee will make public appearances: Philadelphia Fed Pres. Charles Plosser on Monday and New York Fed Pres. William Dudley on Thursday.

Two FOMC altnerates take to the podium: Atlanta Fed Pres. Dennis Lockhart and Richmond Fed Pres. Jeffrey Lacker on Tuesday

And one other of the Fed glitterati is scheduled to speak: St. Louis Fed Pres. James Bullard on Friday.

Analytical universe

This week I shall be analyzing new bull and bear signals among 3,840 small-cap and larger stocks and exchange-traded funds.

Trading calendar

By my rules, I'm trading June options and later for the short legs of vertical, diagonal and calendar spreads and covered calls, and for all legs of butterfly spreads and iron condors. I'm trading August options and later for single calls and puts as well as straddles. Shares, of course, are good at any time.

Good trading.

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