Monday, May 26, 2014

The Week Ahead: Durable goods, GDP and personal income/outlays

The U.S. markets re-open on Tuesday following the long Memorial Day weekend to a barrage of economic reports.

Those with the greatest capacity to impact traders are the durable goods orders report on Tuesday, the preliminary, or second, estimate of the gross domestic product on Thursday and personal income and outlays on Friday. Each will be released at 8:30 a.m. New York time.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial jobless claims, at 8:30 a.m. Thursday. 

The index of consumer expectations from the Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment report, at 9:55 a.m. on Friday.

Other items of interest:

Monday: Markets closed

Tuesday: S&P Case-Shiller home price index in 20 metropolitan areas, at 9 a.m., consumer confidence at 10 a.m. and the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank manufacturing survey at 10:30 a.m.

Thursday: Pending home sales at 10 a.m. and petroleum inventories at 11 a.m.

Friday: The Chicago Purchasing Managers index at 9:45 a.m. and the Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment report at 9:55 a.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily.


Two Federal Open Market Committee members take to the podium: Cleveland Fed Pres. Sandra Pianalto on Thursday and Philadelphia Fed Pres. Charles Plosser on Friday.

Two FOMC alternates also have scheduled public appearances: Atlanta Fed Pres. Dennis Lockhart on Tuesday and Richmond Fed Pres. Jeffrey Lacker on Friday.

Others speaking from among the Fed glitterati are Kansas City Fed Pres. Esther George on Thursday and a nominee who starts work June 1, Cleveland Fed Pres. Loretta Mester on Thursday and Friday

Analytical universe

This week I shall be analyzing new bull and bear signals among 3,816 small-cap and larger stocks and exchange-traded funds.

Trading calendar

By my rules, I'm trading June options and later for the short legs of vertical, diagonal and calendar spreads and covered calls, and for all legs of butterfly spreads and iron condors. I'm trading September options and later for single calls and puts as well as straddles. Shares, of course, are good at any time.

Good trading.


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