Sunday, May 4, 2014

The Week Ahead: International trade, Yellen

Traders will need to look to earnings  and occasional appearances by the Federal Reserve glitterati for excitement, as a slow week in economic reporting lies ahead, with only one publication of note on the calendar.

That report is international trade, due out Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. New York time.

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen makes her two periodic reports to Congress on the economic outlook, before the Joint Economic Committee on Wednesday at 10 a.m. and the Senate Committee on Budget on Thursday at 9:30 a.m.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The average hourly workweek in manufacturing from the employment report, at 8:30 a.m. Friday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial jobless claims, at 8:30 a.m. Thursday. 

Other reports of interest:

Monday: The Institute of Supply Management non-manufacturing index at 10 a.m.

Wednesday:  Productivity and costs at 8:30 a.m. and petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m.

Thursday:   The Federal Reserve money supply report at 4:30 p.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily.


Yellen aside, three other members of the Federal Open Market Committee will make public appearances: Fed Gov. Jeffry Stein on Tuesday, and Philadelphia Fed Pres. Charles Plosser and Fed Gov. Daniel Tarullo  on Thursday.

St. Louis Federal Pres. James Bullard, who is neither a member of nor an alternate on the FOMC, speaks on Thursday.

Analytical universe

This week I shall be analyzing new bull and bear signals among 3,869 small-cap and larger stocks and exchange-traded funds.

Trading calendar

By my rules, I'm trading June options for the short legs of vertical, diagonal and calendar spreads and covered calls, and for all legs of butterfly spreads and iron condors. I'm trading August options for single calls and puts as well as straddles. Shares, of course, are good at any time.

Good trading.

No comments:

Post a Comment