Saturday, November 12, 2016

The Week Ahead: Prices, industry, retail, housing

The week has a stew of economic reports to feed the markets, ranging from prices to industry to retail to the important real-estate sector.

The price reports are the consumer price index on Thursday and the producer price index on Wednesday, each at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time.

Also out, retail sales on Tuesday and housing starts on Thursday, each at 8:30 a.m., and industrial production on Wednesday at 9:15 a.m.

Fed Chair Jnet Yellen delivers her economic outlook testimony before the Joint Economic Committtee of Congress on Thursday at 10 a.m.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The average hourly workweek in manufacturing from the employment report, at 8:30 a.m. Friday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment from the jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.

Building permits for new private homes from housing starts at 8:30 a.m. on Thursday.

Multi-Asset Investing: A Practioner’s Framework
by Pranay Gupta et al.

Events arranged by day:

Tuesday: Retail sales, the Empire State manufacturing survey of conditons in New York and import and export prices, each at 8:30 a.m., and business inventories at 10 a.m.

Wednesday: Producer prices at 8:30 a.m., industrial production at 9:15 a.m., the Home Builders housing market index and petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m.

Thursday: Jobless claimsconsumer prices, housing starts and the Philadelphia Federal Reserve business outlook survey, each at 8:30 a.m., and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate based on U.S. Treasury yields, which presently stands at 1.76%, up 20 basis points from a week earlier.

Treasury Debt

  • 4-week: Announcement Monday 11 a.m., auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 3-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 6-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 52-week: Auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m. settlement Thursday.
  • 2-year: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 2-year floating rate: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 3-year: Settlement Tuesday.
  • 5-year: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 7-year: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 10-year: Settlement Tuesday.
  • 30-year: Settlement Tuesday.
  • 10-year: Auction Thursday1 p.m.

In addition to Yellen's testimony, three other Fed officials from Washington, D.C. make public appearances during the week.

Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fischer speaks on Bond Market Liquidity at the Brookings Institution in Washington on Tuesday at 1:30 p.m.

Fed Gov. Lael Brainard discusses The Evolution of Work and the Increase in Alternative Work Arrangements at a forum in New York on Thursday at 12:30 p.m.

Fed Gov. Jerome Powell's topic, The Global Trade Slowdown and Its Implications for Emerging Asia, will be in an address before the Center for Pacific Basin Studies in San Francisco on Friday at 9:45 p.m.

All are members of the Federal Open Market Committee. Other FOMC members taking to the podium are Boston Fed Pres. Eric Rosengren on Tuesday, St. Louis Fed Pres. James Bullard on Wednesday and Friday, New York Fed Pres. William Dudley on Thursday and Kansas City Fed Pres. Esther George on Friday.

FOMC alternates speaking are Dallas Fed Pres. Robert Kaplan on Monday and Friday, Minneapolis Fed. Pres. Neal Kashkari and Philadelphia Fed. Pres. Patrick Harker, both on Wednesday and Chicago Fed Pres. Charles Evans on Thursday.

Look for appearances by these from among the Fed glitteratti without seats on the FOMC this year: Richmond Fed Pres. Jeffrey Lacker and San Francisco Fed Pres. John Williams, both on Monday


AUGHRA: End, begin, all the same. Big change. Sometimes good, sometimes bad.

--voiced by Billie Whitelaw in "The Dark Chrystal" (1982), directed by Jim Henson and Frank Oz

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Nov. 12, 2016


Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options, a description of how I trade, can be read here.


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Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
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