Sunday, November 27, 2016

The Week Ahead: GDP, Jobs, Income and Manufacturing

Two potentially game-changing reports bookend the markets this week: GDP on Tuesday and jobs on Friday.

The first estimae of gross domestic product for the 3rd quarter will be published on Monday at 8:30 a.m. New York time.The employment report is out on Friday, also at 8:30 p.m.

Together they answer two questions: How's the economy doing and are those results translating into jobs for working Americans? The GDP report also includes the inflation measure most important to the Federal Open Market Committee in managing the nation's money.

The employment report gets  preview on from the privately produced ADP employment report on Wednesday at 8:15 a.m.

Other important reports released during the week: Personal income and outlays on Wednesday at 8:30 a.m., the Institute of Supply Management manufacturing survey on Thursday at 10 a.m.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The average hourly workweek in manufacturing from the employment report at 8:30 a.m. Friday.

Vendor performance, or the deliveries time index, from the ISM manufacturing survey.
The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment from the jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.

Candlestick Charting Techniques
by Steve Nison

Events arranged by day:

Tuesday: GDP at 8:30 a.m., the Case-Shiller home price index at 9 a.m. and consumer confidence at 10 a.m.

Wednesday:  The ADP employment report at 8:15 a.m., personal income and outlays at 8:30 a..m., pending home sales at 10 a.m., petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m. and the Federal Reserve Beige Book at 2 p.m.

Thursday: Motor vehicle sales thorughout the day, jobless claims at 8:30 a.m., the Purchasing Managers Institute manufacturing index at 9:45 a.m., the ISM manufacturing index and construction spending, each at 10 a.m., and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.

Friday: Employment at 8:30 a.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate based on U.S. Treasury yields, which presently stands at 1.81%, unchanged from a week earlier.

Treasury Debt

  • 4-week: Announcement Monday 11 a.m., auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., settlement Thursday
  • 3-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 6-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thuresday 11 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 52-week: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 2-year: Settlement Wednesday.
  • 5-year: Settlement Wednesday.
  • 7-year: Settlement Wednesday.
  • None.
  • 10-year: Settlement Wednesday.

Two Federal Reserve governors make public appearances during the week.

  • Jerome Powell at two events:
    • On The Economic Outlook at the Economic Club of Indiana in Indianapolis on Tuesday at 12:40 p.m. New York time.
    • On The View from the Fed at a Brookings Institution program, "Understanding Fedspeak", in Washington on Wednesday at 11:45 a.m. (Streamed live here.)
  • Daniel Tarullo on Financial Responsibility Since the Crisis at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Financial Stability Conference on Friday at 1 p.m.
Both are members of the Federal Open Market Committee.

Other FOMC members taking to the podium are New York Fed Pres. William Dudley on Tuesday and Cleveland Fed Pres. Loretta Mester on Thursday.

An FOMC alternate, Dallas Fed Pres. Robert Kaplan, makes an appearance on Wednesday.


No passion so effectually robs the mind of all its powers of acting and reasoning as fear.

--Edmund Burke, A Philosophical Inquiry into the Origin of Our Idea of the Sublime and Beautiful (1756)

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Nov. 27, 2016


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Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
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