Sunday, November 20, 2016

The Week Ahead: Holiday, homes, durables, FOMC minutes

The U.S. markets are closed on Thursday for the Thanksgiving Day holiday, interrupting a week of economic reporting from real estate to big-ticket items and international trade, and will close early on Friday, at 1 p.m. New York time.

Existing home sales statitics will be published on Tuesday and new home sales on Wednesday, each at 10 a.m.

Look for durable goods orders on Wednesday and international trade in goods on Friday, each at 8:30 a.m.

The Purchasing Managers Institutute manufacturing index flash report will be out on Wednesday at 9:45 a.m.

The Federal Open Market Committee minutes of the body's Nov. 2 meeting will be published Wednesday at 2 p.m.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment from the jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.

Index of consumer expectations fomr the University of Michicgan consumer sentiment survey at 10 a.m. Wednesday.

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Events arranged by day:

Tuesday: Existing home sales at 10 a.m.

Wednesday:  Durable goods orders and jobless claims, each at 8:30 a.m., the PMI manufacturing index report at 9:45 a.m., new home sales and consumer sentiment, each at 10 a.m., petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m. and the FOMC minutes at 2 p.m.

Friday: International trade at 8:30 a.m. and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate based on U.S. Treasury yields, which presently stands at 1.81%, up five basis points from a week earlier.

Treasury Debt

  • 4-week: Announcement Monday 11 a.m., auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., settlement Friday.
  • 3-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Wednesday 11 a.m., settlement Friday.
  • 6-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Wednesday 11 a.m., settlement Friday.
  • 2-year: Auction Monday 2 p.m.
  • 2-year floating rate: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., settlement Friday.
  • 5-year: Auction Tuesday 1 p.m.
  • 7-year: Auction Wednesday 1 p.m.
  • None.
  • None.

Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer, a member of the Federal Open Marlet Copmmittee, speaks befor ethe Council on Foriegn Relations in New York on Monday at 8 a.m. Fischer's subject: Longer-Term Challenges for the U.S. Economy. Live video will be available here.


If vices were profitable, the virtuous man would be the sinner.

--Francis Bacon (1561-1626), Ornamenta Rationalia

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Nov. 20, 2016


Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options, a description of how I trade, can be read here.


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Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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