The Week Ahead: Retail, producer prices, productivity

This week's economic reporting saves the best for last.

Two major reports are on the agenda: Retail sales and the producer price index, each on Friday at 8:30 a.m. New York time.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment from the jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.

The index of consumer expectations from the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey at 10 a.m. Friday.

Financialisation and the Financial and Economic Crises by Eckhard Hein et al.

Events arranged by day:

Tuesday: Productivity and unit labor costs at 8:30 a.m.

Wednesday:  Job openings and labor turnover survey at 10 a.m., petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m. and the Treasury budget at 2 p.m.

Thursday: Jobless claims and import and export prices, each at 8:30 a.m., and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.

Friday: Retail sales and producer prices, each at 8:30 a.m., and business inventories and consumer sentiment, each at 10 a.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate based on U.S. Treasury yields, which presently stands at 1.36%, up two basis points from a week earlier.

Treasury Debt

Bills

• 4-week: Announcement Monday 11 a.m., auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., settlement Thursday.
• 3-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m., settlement Thursday.
• 6-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m., settlement Thursday.
• 52-week: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.

Notes

• 3-year: Auction Tuesday 1 p.m.
• 10-year: Auction Wednesday 1 p.m.

Bonds

• 30-year: Auction Thursday 1 p.m.

TIPS

• None.

Fedsters

Summertime, and the living is easy, at least for the Fed glitterati, none ofwhom has scheduled a public appearance during the week.

Thought

Never give in, never give in, never, never, never, never—in nothing, great or small, large or petty—never give in except to convictions of honour and good sense.

--Winston Churchill, speech at Harrow School (1941)

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Aug. 7, 2016

References


Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options, a description of how I trade, can be read here.

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Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License



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Based on a work at www.timbovee.com Post settings Labels Published on 7/24/16, 4:50 PM Pacific Daylight Time Permalink Location Options Send feedback