The Federal Open Market Committee minutes of its July 6 meeting will be published on Wednesday at 2 p.m. With the financial press caught in an endless, and essentially meaningless, cycle of interest rate speculation -- will they or won't they raise before the year ends -- the minutes will be given the same level of scrutiny that in earlier times was reserved for the oracles given at Delphi. My guess as to market impact? Zip to nil.
Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):
The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.
The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.
The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.
Average weekly initial claims for unemployment from the jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.
by Andy Stern |
Events arranged by day:
Monday: Empire State manufacturing survey on conditions in New York at 8:30 a.m., the Home Builders housing market index at 10 a.m. and the Treasury Department's international capital report at 4 p.m.
Tuesday: The consumer price index and housing starts, each at 8:30 a.m., and industrial production at 9:15 a.m.
Wednesday: Petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m. and the Treasury budget at 2 p.m.
Thursday: Jobless claims at 8:30 a.m., the FOMC minutes at 2 p.m. and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.
I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate based on U.S. Treasury yields, which presently stands at 1.32%, down four basis points from a week earlier.
Treasury Debt
Bills
- 4-week: Announcement Monday 11 a.m., auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., settlement Thursday.
- 3-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m., settlement Thursday.
- 6-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m., settlement Thursday.
- 52-week: Auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., settlement Thursday.
- 2-year: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
- 2-year floating rate: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
- 3-year: Settlement Monday.
- 5-year: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
- 7-year: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
- 10-year: Settlement Monday.
Bonds
- 30-year: Settlement Monday.
- 5-year: Announcement Thursday 1 p.m.
A member of the Federal Open Market Committee, St. Louis Fed Pres. James Bullard, makes a public appeerance on Wednesday.
One other of the Fed leadership, Atlanta Fed Pres. Dennis Lockhart, who does not have a position on the FOMC this year, speas on Tuesday.
Thought
If failure has the strength to turn your life into bitterness itself, then patience has the strength to turn your life into the sweetest joy. Do not surrender to fate after a single failure. Failure, at most, precedes success.
- --Sri Chinmoy, Songs of the Soul (1971).
-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Aug. 14, 2016
References
Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options, a description of how I trade, can be read here.
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