Monday, August 22, 2016

The Week Ahead: GDP, homes, durables, trade, Jackson Hole

The second release of gross domestic product for the 2nd quarter will be published Friday at 8:30 a.m. New York time, accompanied by a potpourri of other important releases: New home sales on Tuesday and existing home sales on Wednesday, each at 10 a.m., durable goods orders on Thursday at 8:30 a.m. and international trade on Friday at 8:30 a.m.

The Fed's Monetary Policy Symposium at Jackson Hole, Wyoming will be held Thursday through Saturday. The conference theme: "Designing resilient monetary policy frameworks for the future".

(The full speaker program will be available at 8 p.m. New York time on Thursday.)

Fed Chair Janet Yellen will address the conference on Friday at 10 a.m. on the topic, "The Federal Reserve's monetary policy toolkit".

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment from the jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.

The index of consumer expectations from the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey at 10 a.m. Friday.

Chaos Monkeys: Obscene Fortune and Random Failure in Silicon Valley
by Antonio Garcia Martinez

Events arranged by day:

Tuesday: New home sales at 10 a.m.

Wednesday:  The PMI manufacturing flash index at 9:45 a.m., existing home sales at 10 a.m. and petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m.

Thursday: Jobless claims at 8:30 a.m., durable goods orders at 8:30 a.m. and and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.

Friday: GDP at 8:30 a.m., international trade at 8:30 a.m. consumer sentiment at 10 a.m. and Fed Chair Yellen at Jackson Hole at 11 a.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate based on U.S. Treasury yields, which presently stands at 1.37%, up five basis points from a week earlier.

Treasury Debt

  • 4-week: Announcement Monday 11 a.m., auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 3-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 6-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 2-year: Auction Tuesday 1 p.m.
  • 2-year floating rate: Auction Wednesday 11:30 a.m.
  • 2-year floating rate: Settlement Friday.
  • 5-year: Auction Wednesday 1 p.m.
  • 7-year: Auction Thursday 1 p.m.
  • None.
  • None.

The Fed glitterati are silent as the Jackson Hole conference approaches.


All games are basically hostile. Winners and losers. We see them all around us: the winners and the losers. The losers can oftentimes become winners, and the winners can very easily become losers.
--William S. Burroughs (1991)

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Aug. 21, 2016


Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options, a description of how I trade, can be read here.


Two social media feeds provide notification whenever something new is posted.
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

Creative Commons License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Tim Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at
Post settings Labels Published on 7/24/16, 4:50 PM Pacific Daylight Time Permalink Location Options Send feedback

No comments:

Post a Comment