The Fed's Monetary Policy Symposium at Jackson Hole, Wyoming will be held Thursday through Saturday. The conference theme: "Designing resilient monetary policy frameworks for the future".
(The full speaker program will be available at 8 p.m. New York time on Thursday.)
Fed Chair Janet Yellen will address the conference on Friday at 10 a.m. on the topic, "The Federal Reserve's monetary policy toolkit".
Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):
The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.
The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.
The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.
Average weekly initial claims for unemployment from the jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.
The index of consumer expectations from the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey at 10 a.m. Friday.
by Antonio Garcia Martinez |
Events arranged by day:
Tuesday: New home sales at 10 a.m.
Wednesday: The PMI manufacturing flash index at 9:45 a.m., existing home sales at 10 a.m. and petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m.
Thursday: Jobless claims at 8:30 a.m., durable goods orders at 8:30 a.m. and and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.
Friday: GDP at 8:30 a.m., international trade at 8:30 a.m. consumer sentiment at 10 a.m. and Fed Chair Yellen at Jackson Hole at 11 a.m.
I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate based on U.S. Treasury yields, which presently stands at 1.37%, up five basis points from a week earlier.
Treasury Debt
Bills
- 4-week: Announcement Monday 11 a.m., auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., settlement Thursday.
- 3-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m., settlement Thursday.
- 6-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m., settlement Thursday.
- 2-year: Auction Tuesday 1 p.m.
- 2-year floating rate: Auction Wednesday 11:30 a.m.
- 2-year floating rate: Settlement Friday.
- 5-year: Auction Wednesday 1 p.m.
- 7-year: Auction Thursday 1 p.m.
Bonds
- None.
- None.
The Fed glitterati are silent as the Jackson Hole conference approaches.
Thought
All games are basically hostile. Winners and losers. We see them all around us: the winners and the losers. The losers can oftentimes become winners, and the winners can very easily become losers.
--William S. Burroughs (1991)
--William S. Burroughs (1991)
-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Aug. 21, 2016
References
Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options, a description of how I trade, can be read here.
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Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
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