U.S. markets will be closed on Monday for the Labor Day holiday, traditionally considered to be the end of summer vacation season. Markets in the other money centers -- London, Tokyo and Sydney -- will be open as usual.
Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):
The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.
The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.
The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.
Average weekly initial jobless claims, at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.
The index of consumer expectations from the Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment report, at 10 a.m. Friday.
Events arranged by day:
Monday: Markets closed for Labor Day.
Wednesday: Job openings and labor turnover survey at 10 a.m.
Thursday: Jobless claims and import and export prices at 8:30 a.m., petroleum inventories at 11 a.m. and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.
Friday: Producer price index at 8:30 a.m., consumer sentiment at 10 a.m. and the Treasury budget at 2 p.m.
I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate based on U.S. Treasury yields, which presently stands at 1.20%.
- 4-week: Announcement Tuesday 11 a.m., auction Wednesday 11:30 a.m., settlement Thursday.
- 3-month: Auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
- 6-month: Auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
- 52-week: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
- 3-year: Auction Tuesday 1 p.m.
- 10-year: Auction Wednesday 1 p.m.
- 30-year: Auction Thursday 1 p.m.
- 10-year: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
The Silence of the Feds: Great name for a film, especially in a week when none of the Federal Reserve glitterati has scheduled a public appearance.
This week I shall be analyzing new bull and bear signals among 506 large-cap stocks and exchange-traded funds.
Enjoy the holiday, and good trading.
-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Sept. 5, 2015
My trading rules can be read here.
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