Saturday, September 5, 2015

The Week Ahead: Producer prices

The producer price index, a measure of inflation before goods reach the consumer, will be published Friday at 8:30 a.m. New York time.

U.S. markets will be closed on Monday for the Labor Day holiday, traditionally considered to be the end of summer vacation season. Markets in the other money centers -- London, Tokyo and Sydney -- will be open as usual.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial jobless claims, at 8:30 a.m. Thursday. 

The index of consumer expectations from the Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment report, at 10 a.m. Friday.

Events arranged by day:

Monday: Markets closed for Labor Day.

Wednesday: Job openings and labor turnover survey at 10 a.m.

Thursday: Jobless claims and import and export prices at 8:30 a.m., petroleum inventories at 11 a.m. and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.

Friday: Producer price index at 8:30 a.m., consumer sentiment at 10 a.m. and the Treasury budget at 2 p.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate based on U.S. Treasury yields, which presently stands at 1.20%.

Treasury Debt

  • 4-week: Announcement Tuesday 11 a.m., auction Wednesday 11:30 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 3-month: Auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 6-month: Auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 52-week: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 3-year: Auction Tuesday 1 p.m.
  • 10-year: Auction Wednesday 1 p.m.
  • 30-year: Auction Thursday 1 p.m.
  • 10-year: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.

The Silence of the Feds: Great name for a film, especially in a week when none of the Federal Reserve glitterati has scheduled a public appearance.

Analytical universe

This week I shall be analyzing new bull and bear signals among 506 large-cap stocks and exchange-traded funds.

Enjoy the holiday, and good trading.

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Sept. 5, 2015


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