NKE Analysis

Update 11/13/2015: The profit on my position reached 52% of its maximum potential and I excited to avoid further time risk.

Shares rose by 7.2% over 50 days, or a +53% annual rate. The options position produced a 60.0% yield on debit, for a +438% annual rate.

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The athletic apparel and equipment maker NIKE Inc. (NKE), headquartered in Washington County outside of Beaverton, Oregon, publishes earnings on Thursday after the closing bell.

[NKE in Wikipedia]

NKE

I shall use the NOV series of options, which trades for the last time 57 days hence, on Nov. 20.

Ranges

Click on chart to enlarge.

NKE at 10:20 a.m. New York time, 90 days 2-hour bars

Implied volatility stands at 31.6%, which is 1.3 times the VIX, a measure of volatility of the S&P 500 index. NKE’s volatility stands in the 91st percentile of its annual range.

Ranges implied by options and the chart

Week	SD1 68.2%	SD2 95%	Chart	Earns
Upper	128.43	142.69	117.72	123.93
Lower	99.93	85.67	102.98	104.43
Gain/loss	12.5%	15.5%

Implied volatility 1 and 2 standard deviations; chart support and resistance, maximum earns move
The Trade

The position covers all of the maximum post-earnings movement range and the chart range as well, while leaving a small portion of the one standard deviation range beyond the profit zone at both top and bottom.

Iron condor, short the $125 calls and long the $130 calls,
short the $100 puts and long the $95 puts,
sold for a credit and expiring Nov. 21.
Probability of expiring out-of-the-money

NOV	Strike	OTM
Upper	125	83,6%
Lower	100	82.5%

The premium is $1.12, which is 22% of the width of the position’s wings.The stock at the time of purchase was priced at $113.86.

The risk/reward ratio is 3.5:1.

The zone of profit in the proposed trade covers a $12.50 move either way. The biggest immediate move after each of the past four earnings announcements was $9.75, and the average was $5.04.

Decision for My Account

 I've opened an iron condor on NKE as described above.

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Sept. 24, 2015

References

My volatility trading rules can be read here.


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Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.