It was the seventh bull signal from LNKD in the past year. Only a third of the six completed signals produced a profit.
[LNKD in Wikipedia]
I shall use the OCT series of options, which trades for the last time 35 days hence, on Oct 16.
Of the six completed bull signals during the past year, only two were successful, on average yielding 12.8% over 44 days The four unsuccessful signals produced a 6.4% loss over 23 days, on average.
That historical tendency to whipsaw suggests that a non-directional iron condor will be the strategy most likely to succeed.
Click on chart to enlarge.
|LNKD at 9:42 a.m. New York time, 90 days 2-hour bars|
At this point I can cut the analysis short.
Decision for My Account
I won't trade LNKD today because implied volatility is below the 50th percentile minimum that I require.
-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Sept. 11, 2015
My volatility trading rules can be read here.
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