Sunday, July 5, 2015

The Week Ahead: Trade, earnings, FOMC minutes, Yellen

International trade statistics will be published Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. New York time, the lone potential market mover among economic reports during the week.

Of far greater impact will be the 2nd quarter earnings announcement season. The six-week season traditionally begins with the report from Alcoa Inc. (AA).

The Federal Open Market Committee minutes of the June 16-17 meeting will be released Wednesday at 2 p.m., touching off a few a minutes of intense tea-leaf reading as analysts seek to discern whether Fed Chair Janet Yellen really, truly, cross-her-heart meant what she so clearly said last month about raising interest rates someday.

Speaking of, Chair Yellen gives a speech on the U.S. economic outlook to the City Club of Cleveland on Friday at 12:30 p.m.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial jobless claims, at 8:30 a.m. Thursday. 

Items of interest, arranged by day:

Monday: Institute of Supply Management non-manufacturing index at 10 a.m.

Tuesday: International trade at 8:30 a.m. and job openings and labor turnover survey at 10 a.m.

Wednesday: Petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m. and FOMC minutes at 2 p.m.

Thursday: Jobless claims at 8:30 a.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate based on U.S. Treasury yields, which presently stands at 1.71%.

Treasury Debt

  • 4-week: Announcement Monday 11 a.m., auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 3-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 6-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 3-year: Auction Tuesday 1 p.m.
  • 10-year: Auction Wednesday 1 p.m..
  • 30-year: Auction Thursday 1 p.m.
  • 30-year: Settlement Tuesday.

In addition to Yellen on Friday, two members of the Federal Open Market Committee have scheduled public appearances: San Francisco Fed Pres. John Williams on Wednesday and Fed Gov. Lael Brainard on Thursday.

Two FOMC alternate members speak: Kansas City Fed Pres. Esther George on Thursday and Boston Fed Pres. Eric Rosengren on Friday.

One of the Fed glitterati unassociated with the FOMC takes to the podium: Minneapolis Fed Pres. Narayana Kocherlakota on Thursday.

Analytical universe

This week I shall be analyzing new bull and bear signals among 500 large-cap stocks and exchange-traded funds.

Good trading.

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, July 5, 2015


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