Sunday, July 26, 2015

The Week Ahead: GDP, FOMC, Durables

The first look at 2nd quarter gross domestic product will be published on Thursday at 8:30 a.m. New York time.

The release comes a day after the Federal Open Market Committee holds a two-day meeting on when to raise interest rates. The meeting statement will be out on Wednesday at 2 p.m.

One other major economic report has potential influence over the markets: Durable goods orders, published Monday at 8:30 a.m.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial jobless claims, at 8:30 a.m. Thursday. 

The index of consumer expectations from the Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment report, at 10 a.m. Friday.

Items of interest, arranged by day:

Monday: Durable goods orders at 8:30 a.m. and the Dallas Federal Reserve manufacturing survey at 10:30 a.m.

Tuesday: The S&P Case-Shiller home price index in 20 metropolitan areas at 9 a.m. and the Conference Board consumer confidence report at 10 a.m.

Wednesday: Pending home sales at 10 a.m., petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m. and the FOMC statement at 2 p.m.

Thursday: The GDP and jobless claims at 8:30 a.m. and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.

Friday: The employment cost index at 8:30 a.m., Chicago purchasing managers index at 9:45 a.m. and consumer sentiment at 10 a.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate based on U.S. Treasury yields, which presently stands at 1.46%.

Treasury Debt

  • 4-week: Announcement Monday 11 a.m., auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 3-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 6-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 2-year: Auction Tuesday 1 p.m., settlement Friday.
  • 2-year floating rate: Auction Wednesday 1 p.m.
  • 5-year: Auction Wednesday 1 p.m., settlement Friday.
  • 7-year: Auction Thursday 1 p.m.
  • None.

  • 10-year: ,Settlement Friday.


Aside from the Federal Open Market Committee statement on Wednesday, there is nothing from the Fed glitterati but the sound of silence.

Analytical universe

This week I shall be analyzing new bull and bear signals among 500 large-cap stocks and exchange-traded funds.

Good trading.

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, July 26, 2015


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