Under my trading system, a bull signal occurs when a price closes above its 20-day price channel. However, it must confirmed. For a high-odds signal, that means the price must continue to trade above that breakout point the next day.
QQQ's price dropped back within the channel, so no confirmation.
For a symbol with low odds of success, confirmation would mean retreating back within the channel, but that doesn't apply here.
Another important point: A signal isn't complete until it is confirmed. Therefore, the odds of success are calculated only on confirmed signals. Unconfirmed signals such as QQQ's today don't affect the odds.
-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, May 28, 2015References
My volatility trading rules can be read here.
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Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.License
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