Sunday, May 10, 2015

The Week Ahead: Retail, industry, producer prices

Two sector reports and an inflation/deflation indicator punctuate the trading week.

The Census Bureau's retail sales data will be distributed Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. New York time.  It is the broadest of the reports tracking the retail sector.

The Federal Reserve's industrial production report will be published Friday at 9:15 a.m.

The producer price index, prepared by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, will be released Wednesday at 8:30 a.m.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial jobless claims, at 8:30 a.m. Thursday. 

The index of consumer expectations from the Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment report, at 10 a.m. Friday.

Other items of interest:

Tuesday: The Labor Department's job earnings and labor turnover survey, at 10 a.m., and the Treasury budget at 2 p.m.

Wednesday:  Import and export prices from the Bureau of Labor Statistics at 8:30 a.m., the Census Bureau's business inventories at 10 a.m., and the Energy Information Administration's petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m.

Friday: The Empire State Manufacturing survey from the Federal Reserve Bank in New York at 8:30 a.m. and Treasury international capital at 4 p.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate based on U.S. Treasury yields, which presently stands at 1.29%.

Treasury Debt

  • 4-week: Announcement Monday 11 a.m., auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., settlement Thursday
  • 3-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 6-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 3-year: Auction Tuesday 1 p.m., settlement Friday.
  • 10-year: Auction Wednesday 1 p.m., settlement Friday.
  • 30-year: Auction Thursday 1 p.m., settlement Friday.
  • 10-year: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.

Only one of the Fed glitterati cautiously pokes a nose out of the prairie dog village favored by money policy wonks, cautiously sniffs the air, and then leaps to the podium to speak.

The brave Fedster is San Francisco Fed Pres. John Williams, a member of the Federal Open Market Committee, who makes his pubic appearance on Tuesday.

Analytical universe

This week I shall be analyzing new bull and bear signals among 513 large-cap stocks and exchange-traded funds.

Trading calendar

By my rules for shorter-term trades of Monthly options, I'm trading June options and later for the short legs of vertical, diagonal and calendar spreads and covered calls, and for all legs of butterfly spreads and iron condors. I'm trading September options and later for single calls and puts as well as straddles. Shares and Weekly options, of course, are good at any time.

Good trading.

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, May 10, 2015


My trading rules can be read here.


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