Sunday, January 18, 2015

The Week Ahead: Holiday, real estate

U.S. markets are closed on Monday for the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday. London, Tokyo and Sydney will be open for trading.

Two real estate reports dominate the economic calendar for the shortened trading week: Housing starts at 8:30 a.m. New York time on Wednesday, and existing home sales at 10 a.m. on Friday,

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The average hourly workweek in manufacturing from the employment report, at 8:30 a.m. Friday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial jobless claims, at 8:30 a.m. Thursday. 

Building permits for new private homes from housing starts, at 8:30 a.m. Wednesday.

The leading indicators index, published Friday at 10 a.m.,  is a consolidated number based on leading indicators, but is not a leading indicator itself. Even so, I find it to be a useful "You Are Here" marker for the economy.

Other items of interest:

Tuesday: The Homebuilders' housing market index at 10 a.m.

Thursday: The Purchasing Managers Institute manufacturing index flash report at 9:45 a.m. and petroleum inventories at 11 a.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily.

Treasury Debt

  • 4-week: Announcement Tuesday 11 a.m., auction Wednesday 11:30 a.m., settlement Thursday
  • 3-month: Auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 6-month: Auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 2-year: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 5-year: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 7-year: Announcement 11 a.m.
  • None
  • 10-year: Auction 1 p.m.

Fed Gov. Jerome Powell, a member of the Federal Open Market Committee, speaks Tuesday at a Brookings Institute program on fair markets. His topic:  Reform of the U.S. dollar LIBOR.

Analytical universe

This week I shall be analyzing new bull and bear signals among 1,177 mid-cap and larger stocks and exchange-traded funds.

Trading calendar

By my rules for shorter-term trades, I'm trading February options and later for the short legs of vertical, diagonal and calendar spreads and covered calls, and for all legs of butterfly spreads and iron condors. I'm trading May options and later for single calls and puts as well as straddles. Shares, of course, are good at any time.

Good trading.

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Jan. 18, 2015

My shorter-term trading rules can be read here. My longer-term trading rules can be read here. And the classic Turtle Trading rules on which my rules are based can be read here. My volatility trading rules can be read here.


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