Sunday, November 9, 2014

The Week Ahead: Retail sales

Retail sales is the one major economic release of the week, due out Friday at 8:30 a.m. New York time.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial jobless claims, at 8:30 a.m. Thursday. 

The index of consumer expectations from the Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment report, Friday at 9:55 a.m.

Other items of interest:

Thursday: Job openings and labor turnover at 10 a.m., petroleum inventories at 11 a.m., and the Treasury budget at 2 p.m.

Friday: Import and export prices at 8:30 a.m., the Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment at 9:55 a.m., and business inventories at 10 a.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily.

Treasury Debt

  • 4-week: Announcement Monday 11 a.m., auction Wednesday 11:30 a.m.
  • 3-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 6-month: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 52-week: Auction Wednesday 11:30 a.m.
  • 3-year: Auction Monday 1 p.m.
  • 10-year: Auction Wednesday 1 p.m.
  • 30-year: Auction Thursday 1 p.m.
  • 10-year: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • Weekly: Thursday.
  • 52-week bill: Thursday.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen makes opening remarks at a joint conference with the European Central Bank, the Global Research Forum on International Macroeconomics and Finance in New York, Thursday at 4 p.m.

Fed Gov. Jerome Powell takes part in a panel discussion at the conference on Friday at 4 p.m.

Two other members of the Federal Open Market committee have scheduled appearances: Philadelphia Fed Pre. Charles Plosser on Wednesday and Thursday, and Minneapolis Fed Pres. Narayan Kocherlakota on Thursday.

Two of the Fed glitterati without seat on the FOMC this year take to the podium: Boston Fed Pres. Eric Rosengren on Monday and St. Louis Fed Pres. James Bullar on Friday.

Analytical universe

This week I shall be analyzing new bull and bear signals among 1,393 mid-cap and larger stocks and exchange-traded funds.

Trading calendar

By my rules for shorter-term trades, I'm trading December options and later for the short legs of vertical, diagonal and calendar spreads and covered calls, and for all legs of butterfly spreads and iron condors. I'm trading February options and later for single calls and puts as well as straddles. Shares, of course, are good at any time.

Good trading.

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Nov. 9, 2014

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