Monday, November 17, 2014

Monday's Finalists: TRLA, EWM, AMZN, URBN

The California search engine company for real-estate, Trulia Inc. (TRLA) and the iShares MSCI Malaysia Index Fund (EWM) each made to the final stage of analysis. TRLA gave a bull signal in Friday's trading, and EWM a bear signal.

Altogether five symbols out of the 30 bull and bear signals made past the early phases of analysis (see "Monday's Prospects").

DOW with a bull signal failed confirmation, this morning and two other bull signals, EXPE and EPB, had insufficiently bullish charts to support a trade.

That left TRA and EWM for further consideration, and both tripped up on their options grids. TRLA has an extremely wide front-month at-the-money bid/ask spread on calls, and EWM has very low open interest. Those two charcteristics are sufficient to knock them out of the running.

From my list of innovative companies, the Washington state books-and-everything-else online retailer Inc. (AMZN) confirmed its bull signal, but the chart strongly suggests that the rise is a counter-trend correction within a decline, and so I'm ruling against the trade for my own account without further analysis.

AMZN remains in contention for a spot in my inventory of longer-term trades, which are structured as shares and must be held for at least a year in order to qualify for the cheaper long-term capital gains rate.

It has closed below the 12-month moving average for the past 12 months. A monthly close above the average would trigger a buy signal under my longer-term rules.

So, I plan no further analysis based on Friday's trading.

I'm looking at the Pennsylvania specialty apparel chain Urban Outfitters Inc. (URBN) as a potential very short term volatility play keyed to its earnings announcement. I'll post an analysis within the next few hours.

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Nov. 17, 2014


My shorter-term trading rules can be read here. My longer-term trading rules can be read here. And the classic Turtle Trading rules on which my rules are based can be read here. My very short term volatility trading rules can be read here

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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