The Week Ahead: GDP, Thanksgiving, much more

U.S. markets will be closed on Thursday for the Thanksgiving Day holiday. Markets in the other major money centers -- London, Tokyo and Sydney -- will be open for business.

Despite the interrupted week there will be a sufficiency of economic news to keep the markets churning, beginning with gross domestic product on Thursday at 8:30 a.m. New York time. It will be the second attempt at calculating the 3rd quarter GDP, which the first calculation a month ago placed at 3.5%. The release will have no impact if that number holds; otherwise, all bets are off.

The other potential market-movers on the calendar all have a Wednesday release: Durable goods orders and personal income and outlays, both at 8:30 a.m., and new home sales at 10 a.m.

Then the holiday on Thursday and an early close for the New York Stock Exchange on Friday at 1 p.m.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Friday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial jobless claims, at 8:30 a.m. Wednesday.

The index of consumer expectations from the Reuters/ University of Michigan consumer sentiment report, at 9:55 a.m. Wednesday.

Other items of interest:

Monday: The Dallas Federal Reserve Bank manufacturing survey at 10:30 a.m.

Tuesday: The S&P Case-Shiller home price index in 20 metropolitan areas, at 9 a.m., and consumer confidence at 10 a.m.

Wednesday: The Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment report at 9:55 a.m. and petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m.

Friday: The Chicago purchasing managers index at 9:45 a.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily.
Fedsters

The glitterati of the Federal Reserve System have no public appearances scheduled during the week, as they no doubt remain in meditative solitude, quietly contemplating the macro-economic implications of turkey, dressing, cranberries and pumpkin pie.

Analytical universe

This week I shall be analyzing new bull and bear signals among 1,323 mid-cap and larger stocks and exchange-traded funds.

Trading calendar

By my rules for shorter-term trades, I'm trading December options and later for the short legs of vertical, diagonal and calendar spreads and covered calls, and for all legs of butterfly spreads and iron condors. I'm trading March options and later for single calls and puts as well as straddles. Shares, of course, are good at any time.

Good trading.

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Nov. 23, 2014

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