Sunday, July 20, 2014

The Week Ahead: Prices, home sales, big stuff

Prices, home sales and big-ticket items dominate the week in economic news.

The consumer price index, the main measure of inflation and deflation, will be published on Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. New York time. With everyone on the edge of their seat waiting for a Fed decision to react to the possibility of inflation, it's a number that will gather much attention.

New home sales reports will be released, existing home sales on Tuesday and new home sales on Thursday, both at 10 a.m.

The durable goods orders report will end the econ week on Friday at 8:30 a.m.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial jobless claims, at 8:30 a.m. Thursday. 

Other items of interest:

Wednesday:  Petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m.

Thursday: The Purchasing Managers' manufacturing index flash release at 9:45 a.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily.


The Federal Reserve glitterati have fallen silent this week, with no speeches scheduled.

Analytical universe

This week I shall be analyzing new bull and bear signals among 4,009 small-cap and larger stocks and exchange-traded funds.

Trading calendar

By my rules, I'm trading August options and later for the short legs of vertical, diagonal and calendar spreads and covered calls, and for all legs of butterfly spreads and iron condors. I'm trading November options and later for single calls and puts as well as straddles. Shares, of course, are good at any time.

Good trading.

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, July 20, 2014

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