Sunday, June 8, 2014

The Week Ahead: Retail, producer prices

Two reports will top a week that has a lack of blockbusters.

Retail sales, out Thursday, seems the most likely of the pair to produce market reaction. The other is the producer price index, to be published Friday. Each is scheduled for 8:30 a.m. New York time.

Also, given the markets' strong reaction to last week's employment report, I plan to keep a watchful eye on initial jobless claims at 8:30 a.m. on Thursday.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial jobless claims, at 8:30 a.m. Thursday. 

The index of consumer expectations from the Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment report, at 9:55 a.m. Friday.

Other items of interest:

Wednesday:  Petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m. and the Treasury budget at 2 p.m.

Thursday: Import and export prices at 8:30 a.m. and business inventories at 10 a.m.

Friday: Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment report at 9:55 a.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily.


One Federal Open Market Committee member, Fed Gov. Daniel Tarullo, has scheduled a public appearance, on Monday.

A pair of other Fed glitterati take to the podium, both also on Monday. They are St. Louis Fed Pres. James Bullard and Boston Fed Pres. Eric Rosengren.

Analytical universe

This week I shall be analyzing new bull and bear signals among 3,841 small-cap and larger stocks and exchange-traded funds.

Trading calendar

By my rules, I'm trading July options and later for the short legs of vertical, diagonal and calendar spreads and covered calls, and for all legs of butterfly spreads and iron condors. I'm trading September options and later for single calls and puts as well as straddles. Shares, of course, are good at any time.

Good trading.

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, June 8, 2014

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