Sunday, June 1, 2014

The Week Ahead: Jobs, manufacturing, international trade

The employment report, including the headline unemployment percentage, will be released Friday at 8:30 a.m. New York time. Of all the barometers of economic well-being, this is probably the most closely watched by Americans.

A private-sector payroll company provides a sneak preview of sorts on Wednesday at 8:15 a.m. when it releases its ADP employment report.

Two other potential market movers have spots on the calendar: The Institute of Supply Management manufacturing index, will be published Monday at 10 a.m. and the international trade report, on Wednesday at 8:30 a.m.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The average hourly workweek in manufacturing from the employment report, at 8:30 a.m. Friday.

Manufacturers new orders for consumer goods and materials from the factory orders report, at 10 a.m. Tuesday.

Vendor performance, also called the delivery times index, from the ISM manufacturing survey, at 10 a.m. Monday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial jobless claims, at 8:30 a.m. Thursday. 

Manufacturers' new orders for non-defense capital goods, from the factory orders report, at 10 a.m. Tuesday.

Other items of interest:

Monday: Purchasing Managers Institute manufacturing index at 9:45 a.m. and construction spending at 10 a.m.

Tuesday: Motor vehicle sales throughout the day.

Wednesday:  Productivity and costs at 8:30 a.m., the Institute of Supply Management non-manufacturing index at 10 a.m., petroleum inventories at 11 a.m. and the Federal Reserve Beige Book at 2 p.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily.


One Federal Open Market Committee member has scheduled a public appearance: Fed Gov. Jerome Powell on Friday.

One FOMC alternate takes to the podium: Chicago Fed Pres. Charles Evans on Monday.

And one other from among the Fed glitterati will be speaking: Kansas City Fed Pres. Esther George on Tuesday.

Analytical universe

This week I shall be analyzing new bull and bear signals among 3,810 small-cap and larger stocks and exchange-traded funds.

Trading calendar

By my rules, I'm trading July options and later for the short legs of vertical, diagonal and calendar spreads and covered calls, and for all legs of butterfly spreads and iron condors. I'm trading September options and later for single calls and puts as well as straddles. Shares, of course, are good at any time.

Good trading.

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, June 1, 2014

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