Sunday, June 22, 2014

The Week Ahead: GDP, housing, durables, income and outlays

The final look at 1st quarter gross domestic product will be published Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. New York time. It's a trailing indicator, but it gives the broadest measure of the state of the economy among all of the economics reports.

Three housing reports will be published: existing home sales on Monday and its companion, new home sales, on Tuesday, both at 10 a.m., and the S&P Case-Shiller home price index, with individual reports for 20 metro areas, on Tuesday at 9 a.m.

Two other potential market-movers are on the calendar: Durable goods order, which tracks the market for big-ticket items, on Wednesday and personal income and outlays, which tracks what we're all doing with our money, on Thursday, both at 8:30 a.m.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial jobless claims, at 8:30 a.m. Thursday. 

The index of consumer expectations from the Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment report, at 9:55 a.m. Friday.

Other items of interest:

Monday: The Purchasing Managers manufacturing index flash release at 9:45 a.m.

Tuesday: Consumer confidence at 10 a.m.

Wednesday:  Petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m.

Friday: The Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment report, at 9:55 a.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily.


The Federal Reserve glitterati have gone silent this week.

Analytical universe

This week I shall be analyzing new bull and bear signals among 3,868 small-cap and larger stocks and exchange-traded funds.

Trading calendar

By my rules, I'm trading July options and later for the short legs of vertical, diagonal and calendar spreads and covered calls, and for all legs of butterfly spreads and iron condors. I'm trading October options and later for single calls and puts as well as straddles. Shares, of course, are good at any time.

Good trading.

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, June 22, 2014

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