Sunday, March 30, 2014

The Week Ahead: Jobs, manufacturing, international trade, Yellen

The monthly employment report, including the headline unemployment rate, will dominate the week in economics reporting. The report itself will be released on Friday at 8:30 a.m. New York time, with a sneak preview on Wednesday at 8:15 a.m. in the form of the ADP employment report produced by a leading payroll services company.

Other reports during the week with market-moving potential are the Institute of Supply Managers manufacturing index on Tuesday at 10 a.m. and the international trade report at 8:30 a.m. on Thursday.

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen addresses the National Interagency Community Reinvestment Conference in Chicago at 9:55 a.m. Monday. Her topic is "Strengthening Communities".

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The average hourly workweek in manufacturing from the employment report, at 8:30 a.m. Friday.

Manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials from the factory orders report, at 10 a.m. Wednesday.

Vendor performance, or the deliveries times index, from the ISM manufacturing survey, at 10 a.m. Tuesday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial jobless claims, at 8:30 a.m. Thursday. 

Manufacturers' new orders for nondefense capital goods from the factory orders report, at 10 a.m. Wednesday.

Other reports of interest:

Monday: The Chicago Purchasing Managers index at 9:45 a.m. and the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank manufacturing survey at 10:30 a.m.

Tuesday:  Motor vehicle sales throughout the day, the PMI manufacturing index at 9:45 a.m. and construction spending at 10 a.m.

Wednesday: Factory orders at 10 a.m. and petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m.

Thursday:  The Institute of Supply Management non-manufacturing index at 10 a.m. and the Federal Reserve money supply report at 4:30 p.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily.


In addition to Yellen's speech on Monday, two of the Federal Reserve glitterati will be making public appearances during the week, both on Wednesday. They are an alternate on the Federal Open Market Committee, Atlanta Fed Pres. Dennis Lockhart, and one other, St. Louis Fed Pres. James Bullard, who has no role on the FOMC this year.

Analytical universe

This week I shall be analyzing new bull and bear signals among 3,861 small-cap and larger stocks and exchange-traded funds.

Trading calendar

By my rules, I'm trading May options for the short legs of vertical, diagonal and calendar spreads and covered calls, and for all legs of butterfly spreads and iron condors. I'm trading July options for single calls and puts as well as straddles. Shares, of course, are good at any time.

Good trading.

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