Saturday, June 29, 2013

The Week Ahead: Employment closes the week with a bang

U.S. markets will be closed on Thursday for the American Independence Day. London, inexplicably declining to join in the celebration, will trade as usual, as will Tokyo and Sydney. The U.S. markets will close early on Wednesday, at 1 p.m. New York Time.

Like Thursday's fireworks displays, the econ week will end with a grand finale: The employment report, including the politically important unemployment rate. It will be published at 8:30 a.m.

The ADP employment report, from the leading U.S. payroll company, will provide a sneak preview of the jobs numbers on Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. Friday.

The week opens with another major report, the Institute of Supply Management manufacturing index, on Monday at 10 a.m.  The survey provides insight into how robustly the manufacturing sector is recovering, which in turn helps inform the Federal Reserve's decision-making on money policy.

International trade statistics showing the balance between imports and exports will be published Wednesday at 8:30 a.m.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

Average hourly workweek in manufacturing from the employment report, 8:30 a.m. Friday.

Manufacturers new orders for consumer goods and materials from the factory orders report, at 10 a.m. Tuesday.

Vendor performance, or the delivery times index, from the Institute of Supply Management manufacturing survey, 10 a.m. Monday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial jobless claims, at 8:30 a.m. Friday, a day later than usual because of the holiday.

Manufacturers new orders for nondefense capital goods from the factory orders report, at 10 a.m. Tuesday.

Other reports of interest:

Monday: Purchasing Managers manufacturing index, just before 9 a.m., and construction spending at 10 a.m.

Tuesday: Motor vehicle sales throughout the day and factory orders at 10 a.m.

Wednesday: Institute of Supply Management non-manufacturing index at 10 a.m. and petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m.

I also follow the Baltic dry index, released daily, tracking the volume of global maritime shipments of coal, iron ore, grain and other raw materials.


Two Federal Open Market Committee members will make public appearances on Tuesday,  New York Fed Pres. William Dudley and Fed Gov. Jerome Powell

Analytical universe

This week I'll be analyzing new bull and bear signals among 2,284 stocks and exchange-traded funds that have some analyst interest. They are traded both on the major U.S. exchanges and over-the-counter. My universe is selected from mid-cap stocks and larger, defined as market capitalization of $1 billion and greater.

Trading calendar

By my rules, I'm trading August options for short vertical  spreads as well as October options for single calls and puts. Of course, shares are good at any time.

Good trading! And have a Glorious Fourth!

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