Tuesday, June 18, 2013

Wednesday's Prospects

On Tuesday, June 18:

Of 2,304 stocks and exchange-traded funds in this week's analytical universe, 53 that are traded on the major American stock exchanges broke beyond their 20-day price channels, 50 to the upside and three to the downside.

In addition, four that are traded over the counter broke out, all to the upside.

Within my analytical universe, 2.5% of symbols gave bull or bear signals, up from 1.3% the prior trading day.

The ratio of bull to bear signals is 17:1, compared to 4:1 the prior trading day, a strengthening of the market's bullish bias to its highest level since May 17, when it was also l7:1. Note also that Tuesday's date is 17 + 1. (I have no clue about all the 17s. Numerology, anyone?)

Eleven of the major-exchange symbols survived my initial screening, all having broken out to the upside. They are ACHC, ACOR, ANSS, ERIC, JKHY, LYB, MPEL, MRH, PRXL, PTP and WES.

None of the over-the-counter symbols survived my initial screening.

I'll do further analysis on the survivors that confirm their signals by trading beyond their breakout levels on Wednesday, June 19.

The symbols I'm analyzing are mid- and large-cap stocks having analyst coverage, as well as selected exchange-traded funds. I screened them for...
  • the odds of a successful trades in the direction of the breakout since the present uptrend began on the S&P 500 weekly chart, on Oct. 4, 2011,
  • a yield adjusted by those odds of 5% or greater,
  • and absence of an earnings announcement within the next 30 days. 
For bear signals, I also screened to ensure the ability to do a trade, either because of the presence of options whatever their open interest or sufficient volume to allow for the short sale of shares.

My cut-off point for bullish bias is a ratio of bull to bear signals of 2:1 or greater, and for bearish bias, 1:2 or smaller, rounded to the nearest whole number.

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