Saturday, June 16, 2012

Greek elections

I shall spend part of Sunday looking at the results of the Greek parliamentary election.

Long-time readers will know that I don't trade news. But to the extent that these elections impact the near future of the Euro-zone and contribute to American market hysteria, they impact my trading.

In a nutshell,
  • Polls close at noon Eastern.
  • Vote estimates based on exit polls will be released by 1 p.m. Eastern.
  • The actual vote count in Greece generally lasts through the night.
  • The punditry goes on forever.
But the vote, of course, may only be the start.

There are 21 parties participating, and seven of them are currently represented in the Hellenic Parliament.

If no single party wins enough seats to control the 300-seat Parliament outright, then the dickering begins. As is not uncommon in parliamentary democracies (unlike the American presidential model), there are enough partisan players with enough ideological overlap to allow governing coalitions to be formed.

So even if one party gains a plurality, it doesn't necessarily mean that it will end up governing.

Some useful reading:

From Wikipedia: 

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