Wednesday, September 22, 2010

9/23 Almanac

On Thursday, Sept. 23: Existing home sales, jobless claims, leading indicators.

There are 23 days before the October options expire, 58 the November and 86 the December.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .


Blue chip stocks (SPY) closed the latest regular session down 0.5% from the prior close. During the day SPY traversed 1.2% in a net move down of 0.3%.

The day's extremes: Open $113.80, high $114.44, low $113.10, close $113.42.

SPY traded above the DeMark pivots before closing within them. The next DeMark pivots are $112.59-$113.93.

In total, 3.1 billion shares were traded on the three major U.S. stock exchanges, 1% fewer than the prior trading day.

Econ reports:

Most homes sold aren't new. They're "existing homes" in the jargon of the industry, and the existing home sales report at 10 a.m. Eastern tracks what's happening in their market. Other reports track new home sales (non-existing home sales??), but it's existing home sales that gives the clearest picture of what's happening in housing. A market mover.

The weekly jobless claims report, out at 8:30 a.m. is much watched as the closest real-time window into employment. Also a market mover.

Leading indicators, out at 10 a.m., never moves the markets, but it's one of my favorite reports nonetheless because it unabashedly claims to predict the future course of the economy. I admire the chutzpah.

Also, natural gas inventories at 10:30 a.m. Sometimes a big deal for the energy sector.

A window into market expectations for inflaton: Treasury announces auction results for 3-month and 6-month bills and 2-year, 5-year and 7-year notes

Trading Calendar:

By my rules, at this point in the cycle I can trade October covered calls, iron condors, and diagonal, butterfly, calendar and vertical spreads. Also, December straddles and single calls or puts. Shares, of course, are good anytime.

What I'm looking for:
  • LO: Pullback to the 20-day moving average as a bullish entry point. Analysis.
  • LVS: Bull phase on Person's Proprietary Signal for reentry post-whipsaw. Analysis.

Good trading.


  • psar - Parabolic Stop and Reverse
  • adx - Average Directional Index
  • pps - Person's Proprietary Signal
  • ma20 - 20-day moving average
  • macd - Moving Average Convergence-Divergence
  • sto - Fast Stochastic

About the glance: The colors indicate the state of each signal.

  • trend: Determined by the 5-day moving average, green for up, red for down, yellow for sideways
  • adx: orange for above 30-up, blue for 20-down, purple for in the middle. Red is most prone to whipsaws
  • psar, pps, macd: green for bull mode, red for bear
  • sto: green for overbought, red for oversold, yellow for the neutral zone.

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