Sunday, September 11, 2016

The Week Ahead: Prices, sales, industry and a speech

Prices, industry and sales lead the week's economic reporting.

The consumer price index will be published Friday and it's companion, the producer price index, on Thursday, each at 8:30 a.m. New York time,

Retail sales will be out Thursday at 8:30 a.m. and industrial production, the same day at 9:15 a.m.

Hints ahead? At a time of growing uneasiness over the future course of interest rates, Fed Gov. Lael Brainard will speak on the economic outlook and its implications for monetary policy before the Chicago Council of Global Affairs on Monday at 1:15 p.m. A live video feed will be available here.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment from the jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.

The index of consumer expectations from the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey at 10 a.m. Friday.

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Events arranged by day:

Tuesday: The Treasury budget at 2 p.m.

Wednesday: Import and export prices at 8:30 a.m. and petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m.

Thursday:  Jobless claimsproducer pricesretail sales, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank business outlook survey and the Empire State manufacturing survey of conditions in New York, each at 8:30 a.m., industrial production at 9:45 a.m. and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.

Friday: The consumer price index at 8:30 a.m., consumer sentiment at 10 a.m. and Treasury's report on international capital flows at 4 p.m., a quadruple witching day in the markets when stock index futures and options, stock options and single-stock futures all expire, a four-times-a-year coincidence that typically produces heavy volume.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate based on U.S. Treasury yields, which presently stands at 1.34%, up four basis points from a week earlier.

Treasury Debt

  • 4-week: Announcement Monday 11 a.m., auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 3-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 6-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 52-week: Auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 3-year: Auction Monday 1 p.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 10-year: Auction Monday 1 p.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 30-year: Auction Tuesday 1 p.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 10-year: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.

In addition to Fed Gov. Lael Brainard's speech on Monday, detailed in the lede,  one Federal Open Market Committee alternate, Minneapolis Fed Pres. Neel Kashkari, speaks on Monday, as does another of the Fed glitterati, Atlanta Fed. Pres. Dennis Lockhart, who holds no formal position on the FOMC this year.


Great achievers are driven, not so much by the pursuit of success, but by the fear of failure.
--Larry Ellison, co-founder and executive chairman, Oracle Corp.

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Sept. 11, 2016


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Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
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