Sunday, September 4, 2016

The Week Ahead: A holiday and not much else

Markets in the United States will be closed on Monday for the Labor Day holiday.

Otherwise, it is a week when no major economic reports are scheduled for release, a week of welcome relaxation for those capable of such, and a week of intense frustration for those driven souls, like me, who are on a never-ending quest for the best opportunities. I doubt that there will be many trades worth taking.

All times are given in New York time.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment from the jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.

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Events arranged by day:

Monday: U.S. markets closed.

Tuesday: Institute of Supply Management non-manufacturing index at 10 a.m.

Wednesday:   Job openings and labor turnovers at 10 a.m. and the Federal Reserve Beige Book at 2 p.m.

Thursday:  Jobless claims at 8:30 a.m., petroleum inventories at 11 a.m. and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate based on U.S. Treasury yields, which presently stands at 1.30%, down five basis points from a week earlier.

Treasury Debt

  • 4-week: Auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 3-month: Auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 6-month: Auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 52-week: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 3-year: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 10-year: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • None.
  • None.

Two member of the Federal Open Market Committee take to the podium during the week: Kansas City Fed Pres. Esther George on Wednesday and Boston Fed Pres. Eric Rosengren on Friday.

San Francisco Fed Pres. John Williams speaks on Tuesday. He has no position on the FOMC this year.


I think there is a profound and enduring beauty in simplicity. In clarity. In efficiency. True simplicity is derived from so much more than just the absence of clutter.

--Sir Jonathan Ive, chief design officer, Apple Inc.

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Sept. 4, 2016


Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options, a description of how I trade, can be read here.


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Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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