The Federal Open Market Committee minutes of the September meeting take on added importance, since on that occasion the FOMC blind-sided market expectations by not raising interest rates. The release on Thursday at 2 p.m. will no doubt be followed by hours of punditry probing the motives for the committee's inaction and portents of future action.
Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):
The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.
The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.
The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.
Average weekly initial claims for unemployment from the jobless claims report on Thursday at 8:30 a.m.
Events arranged by day:
Monday: Institute of Supply Management non-manufacturing idex at 10 a.m.
Tuesday: International trade at 8:30 a.m.
Wednesday: Petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m.
Thursday: Jobless claims at 8:30 a.m., FOMC minutes at 2 p.m. and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.
Import and export prices at 8:30 a.m.
I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate based on U.S. Treasury yields, which presently stands at 1.22%.
Treasury Debt
Bills
- 4-week: Announcement Monday 11 a.m., auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., settlement Thursday.
- 3-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
- 6-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
- 52-week: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
- 3-year: Auction Tuesday 1 p.m.
- 10-year: Auction Wednesday 1 p.m.
- 30-year: Auction Thursday 1 p.m.
- None.
Two Federal Open Market Committee members take to the podium this week: San Francisco Fed Pres. John Williams on Tuesday and Thursday and Chicago Fed Pres. Charles Evans on Friday.
One other of the Fed glitterati has scheduled an appearance: Minneapolis Fed Pres. Narayana Kocherlakota, who holds no FOMC position this year, on Thursday.
Analytical universe
This week I shall be analyzing new bull and bear signals among 488 large-cap stocks and exchange-traded funds.
Good trading.
-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Oct. 4, 2015
References
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Alerts
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