Sunday, September 1, 2013

The Week Ahead: Jobs, Trade, Manufacturing

New jobs numbers, international trade and two manufacturing releases lead economic reporting during this shortened market week.

U.S. markets are closed Monday for the Labor Day holiday.

The Labor Dept. releases its monthly employment and unemployment report on Friday at 8:30 a.m. New York time. The ADP employment report, prepared by the leading American payroll company, provides a sneak preview on Thursday at 8:15 a.m.

International trade statistics are due out Wednesday at 8:30 a.m., detailing whether the U.S. is selling more than it is buying abroad. This report tracks important consequences of the value of the U.S. dollar on currency exchanges which in turn is a consequence of interest rate expectations, which have been on the higher side of late.

The Institute of Supply Management manufacturing index, out Tuesday at 10 a.m., is based on a detailed survey of purchasing managers at 300 companies and tracks the pace of manufacturing, an important component of the economic recovery.

The factory orders report will be released Thursday at 10 a.m. It overlaps with the durable goods report, released a week earlier, but also introduces non-durable goods, and provides greater detail about both.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The average hourly workweek in manufacturing, from the employment report at 8:30 a.m. Friday.

Manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials from the factory orders report at 10 a.m. Thursday.

Vendor performance, also called the deliveries time index, from the Institute of Supply Management manufacturing survey, at 10 a.m. Tuesday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial jobless claims, at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.

Manufacturers new orders for consumer goods and materials from the factory orders report at 10 a.m. Thursday.

Other reports of interest:

Tuesday: The Purchasing Managers index just before 9 a.m. and construction spending at 10 a.m.

Wednesday: Motor vehicle sales throughout the day and the Federal Reserve Beige Book, narrating economic conditions in each of the Fed's regions, at 2 p.m.

Thursday: Productivity and costs at 8:30 a.m., the Institute of Supply Management non-manufacturing index at 10 a.m. and  petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m.


Three Federal Reserve bank presidents take to the hustings this week:

Kansas City Fed Pres. Esther George, a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee, on Friday.

Minneapolis Fed Pres. Narayana Kocherlakota, an FOMC alternate, on Wednesday and Thursday.

San Francisco Fed Pres. John Williams, who doesn't sit on the FOMC this year, on Wednesday.

Analytical universe

This week I shall be analyzing new bull and bear signals among 2,313 stocks and exchange-traded funds that have some analyst interest. They are traded both on the major U.S. exchanges and over-the-counter. My universe is selected from mid-cap stocks and larger, defined as market capitalization of $1 billion and greater.

Trading calendar

By my rules, I'm trading October options for the short legs of vertical spreads and December options for single calls and puts. Of course, shares are good at any time.

Good trading!

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