Wednesday, September 11, 2013

Thursday's Prospects

On Wednesday, Sept. 11:

Of 2,339 stocks and exchange-traded funds in this week's analytical universe, 98 that are traded on the major American stock exchanges broke beyond their 20-day price channels, 95 to the upside and three to the downside.

Seven symbols traded over the counter broke out, all to the upside.

Within my analytical universe, 4.5% of symbols gave bull or bear signals, down from 9.5% the prior trading day.

The ratio of bull to bear signals was 34:1, compared to 12.8:1 the prior trading day, a strengthening of the bullish bias to the highest level since July 15, when the ratio was 61:1.

Twenty symbols traded on the major exchanges survived my initial screening, all having broken out to the upside. They are ASCMA, BIDU, CAR, CHTR, CVD, FANG, ILMN, IPG, JNPR, KRC, LNC, MIDD, NIHD, PL, RES, RHP, RKT, SFG, WST and WU.

One symbol traded over the counter, DDAIF, survived initial screening, having  broken out to the upside.

I shall do further analysis on Thursday, Sept. 12.

Two symbols of interest failed to survive screening but merit a look because of their place in the markets and the economy: AAPL, which broke out to the downside, and GOOG, which broke out to the upside.

The symbols I'm analyzing are mid- and large-cap stocks having analyst coverage, as well as selected exchange-traded funds. I screened them for...
  • greater-than-even odds of a successful trades in the direction of the breakout since the present uptrend began on the S&P 500 weekly chart, on Oct. 4, 2011,
  • a yield adjusted by those odds of 7% or greater,
  • and absence of an earnings announcement within the next 30 days. 
For bear signals, I also screened to ensure the ability to do a trade, either because of the presence of options whatever their open interest or sufficient volume to allow for the short sale of shares.

My cut-off point for bullish bias is a ratio of bull to bear signals of 2:1 or greater, and for bearish bias, 1:2 or smaller, rounded to the nearest whole number.


My trading rules can be read here. And the classic Turtle Trading rules on which my rules are based can be read here.

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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