Sunday, April 1, 2012

The Week Ahead: Jobs

The week culminates with the March jobs report, a key measure for the politics of economic recovery. The report will be released at 8:30 a.m. on Friday.

It doesn't necessarily measure the strength of the future recovery or even whether the economy will  be recovering in April -- hiring of people for jobs is the caboose of the economic cycle. It does measure the degree of pain people are feeling and therefore how prominently economic issues will influence this year's elections.

Two reports will be released during the week that are treated as previews of the main event: The ADP employment report, from the payroll management company, at 8:15 a.m. on Wednesday and weekly jobless claims at 8:30 a.m. on Thursday.

Day by day:

Monday: The Institute of Supply Management manufacturing index and construction spending, both at 10 a.m.

Tuesday: Minutes of the last Federal Open Market Committee meeting at 2 p.m., following factory orders at 10 a.m. and automotive sales throughout the day.

Wednesday, the Institute of Supply Management's non-manufacturing report at 10 .m., and petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m.

Thursday and Friday are covered  by my discussion of the jobs report, above.

Two members of the Federal Open Market Committee -- Cleveland Fed Pres. Sandra Pianalto and San Francisco Fed Pres. John Williams -- have scheduled public appearances during the week. If they should express an opinion about the course of the economy, remember that they have power to influence it.

Pianalto, who worked for the House Budget Committee before beginning her rise through the Federal Reserve staff, speaks Monday at 12:35 p.m.

Williams is also a child of the Fed. He speaks Tuesday at 4:05 p.m. and Wednesday at 11 a.m.

FOMC alternate John Bullard, who rose through the Fed staff to become president of the St. Louis federal reserve bank, speaks Monday at 10 a.m. and Thursday at 9:10 a.m. 

Pianalto took office under President Obama; Williams and Bullard, under President George W. Bush.

Practical trading:

By my rules, as of Monday I can trade May calendar and vertical spreads, and July single options and straddles. Of course, shares are good at any time.

Good trading!

No comments:

Post a Comment