Monday, August 1, 2011

8/1 Indicators

Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) returns to price-channel neutrality; parabolic sar turned bearish late Friday.

The fear index (VIX) and Treasury long-term debt (TLT): Both moved to price-channel bull phase on in intra-day trading on Friday, and both pulled back below the channel boundary that same day. And both gapped down significantly at today’s open. The TLT parabolic sar and macd turned bullish on Friday

Crude oil (USO): The parabolic sar turned to bear phase in late trading Friday.

Gold (GLD): The present bull trend has strengthened, with the average directional index (adx) moving above 25.

The U.S. dollar (UUP) has returned from bear phase to neutrality, having closed for two days within the price channel.

VIX and TLT, among my indicators, are the most sensitive to political risk in the present U.S. debt crisis and its resolution, so traders are deeply into whipsaw territory and I for one shall not take any of these signals as indicating trends.

My debt-crisis play was to go short the U.S. dollar, long the Swiss franc, short SPY and long GLD. Gold didn’t pan out -- my position was stopped out early -- and I’ve unwound my other debt-crisis positions for a nice profit.

Private Trader will be on a limited vacation schedule through Labor Day, Sept. 6.

sym phase adx adx tr   psar macd

sym phase adx adx tr   psar macd

sym phase adx adx tr   psar macd

sym phase adx adx tr   psar macd

Indicator Exchange-Traded Fund Symbols:
EEM - emerging markets
GLD - gold
JNK - high-yield corporate bonds
QQQQ - Nasdaq 100 index
SPY - S&P 500 index
TLT - Treasury long-term bonds
USO - crude oil
UUP - U.S. dollar index
VIX - fear index

  • chan: 55-day price channel phase, with green for bull trend, red for bear trend and yellow for neutral trend. I use the base rule for phase changes: A 55-day channel phase continues until the price has crossed beyond the opposite 20-day channel boundary.
  • adx: Average directional index location, indicating the strength, or the temperature, of the trend. Orange for 40 or greater, aqua (light blue) for 25 and up but below 40, magenta (light purple) for 20 and up but below 25, and brown for anything below 20. (Mnemonic: Orange for the overhead sun, blue for the surrounding sky, magenta for sunset on the horizon and brown for the earth.)
  • adx tr: Average directional index trend, indicating whether the trend is strengthening or weakening. Green for strengthening (up), red for weakening (down), yellow for unchanging (yellow).
  • psar: The parabolic sar, either green for bullish or red for bearish.

  • macd: The macd, either green for bullish or red for bearish.

About channel analysis Read a detailed explanation of my channel analysis method, including trading rules. Disclaimer
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment. No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.
The trader’s greatest sin is inaction. Sleeper, awake! Seize the Nietzchean moment. Roll out of bed and trade.

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