Of 3,866 stocks and exchange-traded funds in this week's analytical universe, 78 mid- and large-cap symbols that are traded on the major American stock exchanges broke beyond their 20-day price channels, two to the upside and 76 to the downside.
Fifty-seven major-exchange small-cap symbols broke out, four to the upside and 53 to the downside.
Four over-the-counter symbols broke out, two in either direction.
Two mid- or large-cap symbol traded on the major exchanges survived my initial screening, both having broken out to the downside. In descending order of net yield, they are ROST and KRE.
Two small-cap major-exchange symbols survived initial screening, one having broken out in either direction. They are TC to the upside and ROSG to the downside.
No symbols traded over the counter survived my initial screening.
One large-cap symbol with high volume is a potential bear play, having met the earnings exclusion test and with sufficient open interest on its options, regardless of historical odds. The symbol is TJX. The eight remaining downside breakouts all had earnings announcements within the next 30 days and so fell within the earnings exclusion period.
News reports on Thursday's trading have made much of sharp declines on the Nasdaq, including two major players, FB and NFLX. Neither symbol crossed its 20-day boundary and so produced no bear signal. Neither did QQQ, the exchange-traded fund that tracks the Nasdaq 100 index.
I shall do further analysis of the surviving symbols on Thursday, April 11. I shall be posting subsequent analysis later than usual in the trading day due to a scheduling conflict.
The next round of earnings began April 8 with the announcement by AA. Under the exclusion rule that forbids me from opening new positions in stocks within 30 days of an earnings announcement, increasing numbers of symbols will be removed from my prospective trades list during initial screening.
The symbols are sorted into three groups and all have analyst coverage through the stock-ranking company Zacks. The groups are:
- mid- and large-cap stocks as well as selected exchange-traded funds listed on major exchanges,
- small-cap stocks on major exchanges,
- mid- and large-cap over-the-counter stocks.
I then screen the symbols for historical odds of a profitable signal in the direction of the breakout since June 24, 2013. That date is when the present uptrend on the S&P 500 chart began. In Elliott wave terms, it is wave 5 to the upside.
If the odds of success are 50% or greater, I next screen for the absence of an earnings announcement within the next 30 days.
For bear signals, I also screen to ensure the ability to do a trade, either because of the presence of options, whatever their open interest, or sufficient volume to allow for the short sale of shares. Symbols that are too illiquid for a bear trade are removed from consideration.
I sort by the results in descending order by the average yield on signals in the direction of the breakout in preparation for the second round of analysis after the opening bell.
My trading rules can be read here. And the classic Turtle Trading rules on which my rules are based can be read here.
Elliott wave analysis tracks patterns in price movements. The principal practitioner of Elliott wave analysis is Robert Prechter at Elliott Wave International. His book, Elliott Wave Principle, is a must-read for people interested in this form of analysis, as is his most recent publication, Visual Guide to Elliott Wave Trading.
Several web sites summarize Elliott wave theory, among them, Investopedia, StockCharts and Wikipedia.
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.
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