Thursday, October 10, 2013

Thursday's Prospects: No trade

Only one symbol, GMLP, survived my initial screening last night. It had broken out to the downside and alone showed good enough odds of success in downside breakouts and a high enough average return since the present market trend began in October 2011. (See "Thursday's Prospects".)

My second look today showed that the options liquidity was too low to support a bearish options spread position. Moreover, GMLP rose with the market generally, failing to confirm its bear signal.

Undaunted, I went to my secondary analysis, which calculates statistics from May 2013, when the market began faltering in its uptrend. There are fewer breakouts for the shorter period, and so fewer symbols that have produced a record to analyze.

ORCL had sufficient odds and return to pass initial screening. But, it too has failed confirmation.

So I'm left with nothing to trade.

ORCL does have excellent options liquidity, and I'll add it to my Watchlist as a potential trade down the road. It announced earnings last month and so won't come back under my 30-day earnings exclusion rule for several months to come.


My trading rules can be read here. And the classic Turtle Trading rules on which my rules are based can be read here.

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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