The Week Ahead: A holiday, then income, outlays, GDP

Markets will be closed on Monday for Memorial Day in New York and the Spring Bank Holiday in London. Tokyo and Sydney will be open for business.

Despite the shortened week in the United States, the economic calendar will have a couple of big bangs and some smaller firecrackers.

Personal income and outlays will be released Friday at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. It's important because the figures show what people are doing with their money: Saving or spending. During good times we're regularly lectured by Very Smart People about the virtues of savings. With an economy not yet fully recovered from the recent recession, the VSP's are advising, Shop 'til you drop.

On Thursday at 8:30 a.m. the government takes a second try at the 1st quarter gross domestic product numbers, in the hopes that they'll be more accurate than the first attempt a month ago. The initial release put growth at 2.5%. Any significant variation from that number will have market impact.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial jobless claims, at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.

The index of consumer expectations from the Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment report, at 9:55 a.m. Friday.

Other reports of interest:

Monday: The S&P Case-Shiller home price index, with statistics from 20 metro areas, at 9 a.m., the Conference Board consumer confidence report at 10 a.m. and the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank's manufacturing survey at 10:30 a.m.

Thursday: Pending home sales at 10 a.m. and petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m.

Friday: The Chicago purchasing managers index at 9:45 a.m.

I also follow the Baltic dry index, released daily, tracking the volume of global maritime shipments of coal, iron ore, grain and other raw materials.

Fedsters

Boston Fed Pres. Eric Rosengren, a member of the Federal Open Market Committee, speaks on Wednesday, and Cleveland Fed Pres. Sandra Pianalto, an FOMC alternate, on Friday.

Analytical universe

This week I'll be analyzing new bull and bear signals among 2,309 stocks and exchange-traded funds that have some analyst interest. They are traded both on the major U.S. exchanges and over-the-counter. My universe is selected from mid-cap stocks and larger, defined as market capitalization of $1 billion and greater.

Trading calendar

By my rules, I'm trading June options for short vertical  and butterfly spreads, iron condors and the short legs of covered calls and diagonals as well as September options for single calls and puts. Of course, shares are good at any time.

Enjoy the holiday, and good trading!