Friday, March 1, 2013

Confirmation Failures

My analysis of Thursday's trading in 1,838 stocks and exchange-traded funds turned up 33 breakouts beyond the 20-day price channel.

Three of those survived my screening for odds of success in the breakout direction and distance from earnings announcements.

And all three moved back within their price channels this morning and so failed to confirm their beakouts.

The three survivors that failed confirmation are DRE, FISV and CYN. All broke out to the upside.

I'll monitor them today and revisit them if they move back above their channel boundaries, although they appear unlikely to do so at this hour.

The 1,838 issues in my universe have an average volume above 500,000 shares a day. They are tracked by the stock rating company Zacks. And they have, since the beginning of the post-crash recovery in 2009, had better than even odds of profitable price-channel breakouts, either bullish or bearish.


My trading rules can be read here.  A discussion of recent modifications to my trading methods, which haven't yet been incorporated in the original write-up, can be found here.

And the classic Turtle Trading rules on which my rules are based can be read here.

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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