Sunday, January 6, 2013

The Week Ahead: A Week of No Significance.

I once read a book titled, 1587, A Year of No Significance. Substitute "week" for "year", and the appellation could be applied to the economic reporting this week. There just isn't a lot there.

In fact, there is but one monthly report report scheduled that in theory has market-moving capacity: International trade, out Friday at 8:30 a.m. The United States last had a trade surplus in 1975, and has been a negative deficit ever since.

So, the report tends to be surprise-free. Frankly, I don't recall when I last saw this report have an impact all on its own.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial jobless claims, at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.

Other reports of interest:

Wednesday: Petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m.

Friday: Import and export prices at 8:30 a.m., and the Treasury budget at 2 p.m.


Richmond Fed Pres. Jeffery Lacker, a member of the money-policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee, speaks Tuesday at 1:30 p.m..

Two FOMC alternates have scheduled appearances, both on Thursday. Kansas City Fed Pres. Esther George speaks at 12:45 p.m., and St. Louis Fed. Pres. James Bullard at 2 p.m.

Trading calendar

By my rules, as of Monday I'm using February options for the short legs of spreads and April options for single calls and puts and the long legs of spreads. Of course, shares are good at any time.

Good trading!

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