Sunday, November 18, 2012

The Week Ahead: Housing and Thanksgiving

Thursday is a public holiday, Thanksgiving Day, in the United States. Markets will be closed that day so traders can enjoy roast turkey and other traditional foods of the day with their families, and will also shut down three hours early on Friday. The other leading money centers will be open for business, including forex trading. (Friday is a holiday in Japan: Labor Thanksgiving Day.)

The week's major econ reports focus on housing, with existing home sales out Monday at 10 a.m. Eastern and housing starts released Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. A third housing report, of less impact, will also be released on Monday: The Home Builders' housing market index, at 10 a.m.

Leading indicators out this week (in order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, moved to Friday 4:30 p.m. because of the holiday, from the Federal Reserve.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial jobless claims, at 8:30 a.m. Wednesday, a day earlier than usual because of the holiday.

Building permits is part of the housing starts report, Tuesday at 8:30 a.m.

The University of Michigan/Reuters consumer sentiment report, Wednesday at 9:55 a.m.

Not itself a leading indicator, the index of leading indicators, a compilation of the forward-looking economic datastreams, will be out Wednesday at 10 a.m.

Other reports of interest:

Wednesday: Petroleum inventories at 11 a.m.

I also like to keep an eye on the Baltic dry index of world shipping, updated daily.

Trading calendar

By my rules, as of Monday I can trade December vertical spreads and March single options and straddles. Of course, shares are good at any time.

Happy Thanksgiving, and good trading!

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