Friday, March 18, 2016

Friday's Outcomes

No trades today.

Zombie holdings on DOW, KO, PG and TSLA expire on Saturday, and I shall update their analyses with profits or losses on that day.

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 18, 2016

References

Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options, a description of how I trade, can be read here.

 Alerts

Two social media feeds provide notification whenever something new is posted.
Disclaimer
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.
License

 Creative Commons License

 All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

 Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.
Posted by Tim Bovee at No comments:

Thursday, March 17, 2016

Friday's Prospects

On Thursday, March 17:

Of 485 large-cap stocks and exchange-traded funds in my analytical universe, 16 broke beyond their 20-day price channels, 11 to the upside and five to the downside. None survived initial screening.

There are no prospects for trades coinciding with earnings announcements.

Lacking prospects, I shall do no further analysis on Friday, March 18.

Earnings season begins April 11. The higher pace of announcements will continue for about four weeks.

Methodology

 The stocks in my analytical universe all have analyst coverage through the stock-ranking company Zacks Investment Research. Not all of the exchange-traded funds are so covered.

I screen the symbols for historical odds of a profitable signal in the direction of the breakout for the past 12 months.

For symbols whose odds of success are in the top or bottom thirds, suggesting a directional or non-directional trade, respectively, I next screen for 1) suitability of the options grid, including open interest of three figures or greater on the strike prices I would need to use to build a position, 2) implied volatility in the 60th percentile or greater of its 12-month range, and 3) the absence of an earnings announcement within the lifespan of the like options series I would trade.

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 17, 2016

References

Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options, a description of how I trade, can be read here.

 Alerts

Two social media feeds provide notification whenever something new is posted.
Disclaimer
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.
License

 Creative Commons License

 All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

 Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.Tss s ss'ss
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Thursday's Outcomes

I considered an earnings play on ADBE but rejected it without full analysis because of low implied relativity.

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 17, 2016

References

Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options, a description of how I trade, can be read here.

 Alerts

Two social media feeds provide notification whenever something new is posted.
Disclaimer
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.
License

 Creative Commons License

 All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

 Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.
Posted by Tim Bovee at No comments:

Thursday's Agenda

I have one prospect my desk this morning, a potential earnings play on ADBE.

However, the symbol's implied volatility is low, at the 36th percentile of its most recent range. My guidelines require volatility in the 60th percentile or higher.

It's not just ADBE. The markets in general are in a period of low volatility, which creates a difficult trading environment for the strategies I use, The VIX, which tracks the volatility of the S&P 500, is at 14.81, in the 10th percentile of its most recent range, which began at a low of 12.80 on Oct. 28, 2015 and peaked at 32.09 on Jan. 20.

There have been times when I've tried low volatility strategies, such as covered calls or diagonal spread. They've not worked out well, so my strategy this season is to wait out the low IV period. There is nothing in the Official Private Trader's Handbook that requires to me to take on a sketchy trade just because there's nothing else available.

So, I shall not proceed with a full analysis of ADBE. I'll keep an eye on it today, and in the very unlikely chance that volatility rises sufficiently to support a trade,then I'll jump in with the analysis.

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 17, 2016

References

Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options, a description of how I trade, can be read here.

 Alerts

Two social media feeds provide notification whenever something new is posted.
Disclaimer
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.
License

 Creative Commons License

 All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

 Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.
Posted by Tim Bovee at No comments:

Wednesday, March 16, 2016

Thursday's Prospects

On Wednesday, March 16:

Of 485 large-cap stocks and exchange-traded funds in my analytical universe, seven broke beyond their 20-day price channels, four to the upside and three to the downside. None survived initial screening.

There is one prospect for a trade coinciding with an earnings announcements.

I shall do further analysis on Thursday, March 17.

Earnings season begins April 11. The higher pace of announcements will continue for about four weeks.

Potential trades keyed to events

The dates are those of the events, all of them earns announcements. Events prior to the opening bell are marked "am", during the trading day "mid", and after the closing bell "pm".

Thursday pm
ADBE
Friday am
(none)

ADBE's implied volatility is below my guidelines, which require volatility in the 60th percentile or greater of the most recent range. I shall make a final decision on whether to proceed with a full analysis Thursday morning and shall report it in the Agenda post.

Methodology

 The stocks in my analytical universe all have analyst coverage through the stock-ranking company Zacks Investment Research. Not all of the exchange-traded funds are so covered.

I screen the symbols for historical odds of a profitable signal in the direction of the breakout for the past 12 months.

For symbols whose odds of success are in the top or bottom thirds, suggesting a directional or non-directional trade, respectively, I next screen for 1) suitability of the options grid, including open interest of three figures or greater on the strike prices I would need to use to build a position, 2) implied volatility in the 60th percentile or greater of its 12-month range, and 3) the absence of an earnings announcement within the lifespan of the like options series I would trade.

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 16, 2016

References

Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options, a description of how I trade, can be read here.

 Alerts

Two social media feeds provide notification whenever something new is posted.
Disclaimer
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.
License

 Creative Commons License

 All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

 Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.Tss s ss'ss
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Wednesday's Outcomes

I'm shutting down my trading early today because of an appointment. I opened a position on CTRP.


-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 16, 2016

References

Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options, a description of how I trade, can be read here.

 Alerts

Two social media feeds provide notification whenever something new is posted.
Disclaimer
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.
License

 Creative Commons License

 All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

 Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.
Posted by Tim Bovee at No comments:

CTRP Analysis

Update 3/28/2015: I exited CTRP for a profit. The exit took place at 33% of maximum profit, lower than I like. However, the chart looked as though it were deteriorating contrary to my interests and so I skedaddled early.

Shares rose by 4.9% over 12 days, or a +149% annual rate. The options position produced a 50.0% yield on debit for a +1,521% annual rate.
The travel service company Ctrip.com International Ltd. (CTRP), headquartered in Shanghai, China, publishes earnings on Wednesday after the closing bell.

[CTRP in Wikipedia]

CTRP

I shall use the APR series of options, which trades for the last time 30 days hence, on April 17.

Ranges

Implied volatility stands at 62%, which is 3.8 times the VIX, a measure of volatility of the S&P 500 index. CTRP’s volatility stands in the 64th percentile of its most recent range. The price used for analysis was $40.96.

Ranges implied by options and earnings
WeekSD1 68.2%SD2 95%Earns
Upper44.2455.5347.52
Lower33.7926.3934.41
Gain/loss±$7.28±$14.57±$6.56
Implied volatility 1 and 2 standard deviations; central tendency earns move

The Trade

CTRP has been in a downtrend since Nov. 20, 2015 and, over a shorter term, has been trending sideways since mid-February.

Prices have closed higher in the next trading session after all of the past four earnings announcements.

Brokers collectively give CTRP an 80% enthusiasm rating, and eight out of 10 analysts following the stock are making strong buy recommendations.

Iron condor, short the $47 calls and long the $48 calls,
short the $33 puts and long the $32 puts,
sold for a credit and expiring April 18.
Probability of expiring out-of-the-money
APRStrikeOTM
Upper4782.2%
Lower3384.1%
The premium is $0.27, which is 27% of the width of the position’s wings. The share price at time of entry was $41.39.

The risk/reward ratio is 2.7:1.

The zone of profit in the proposed trade covers a $7 move either way. The biggest immediate move after each of the past four earnings announcements was $9.54, and the average was $6.69. After eliminating the maximum and minimum post-earnings movements, the core tendency is $6.56.

Decision for My Account

I've entered a position  on CTRP as described above. I was able to construct the spread in a way that allowed coverage of the average and central tendency movements post-earnings, although the zone of profit falls short of covering the maximum range occurring in March 2015.

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 16, 2016

References

Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options, a description of how I trade, can be read here.
Elliott wave analysis tracks patterns in price movements. StockCharts has a good explainer. The principal practioner of Elliott wave analysis is Robert Prechter at Elliott Wave International. His book, Elliott Wave Principle, is a must-read for people interested in this form of analysis, as is his most recent publication, Visual Guide to Elliott Wave Trading. 

Alerts
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Disclaimer
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.
License

 Creative Commons License

 All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

 Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.
Posted by Tim Bovee at No comments:

Wednesday's Agenda

I have one prospect on my agenda, an earnings play on CTRP. I shall post an analysis this morning.

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 16, 2016

References

Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options, a description of how I trade, can be read here.

 Alerts

Two social media feeds provide notification whenever something new is posted.
Disclaimer
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.
License

 Creative Commons License

 All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

 Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.
Posted by Tim Bovee at No comments:

Tuesday, March 15, 2016

Wednesday's Prospects

On Tuesday, March 15:

Of 485 large-cap stocks and exchange-traded funds in my analytical universe, two broke beyond their 20-day price channels, one in either direction. None survived initial screening.

There are no prospects for trades coinciding with earnings announcements.

I shall do further analysis on Wednesday, March 16.

Earnings season begins April 11. The higher pace of announcements will continue for about four weeks.

Potential trades keyed to events

The dates are those of the events, all of them earns announcements. Events prior to the opening bell are marked "am", during the trading day "mid", and after the closing bell "pm".


Wednesday pm
CTRP
Thursday am
(none)

Methodology

 The stocks in my analytical universe all have analyst coverage through the stock-ranking company Zacks Investment Research. Not all of the exchange-traded funds are so covered.

I screen the symbols for historical odds of a profitable signal in the direction of the breakout for the past 12 months.

For symbols whose odds of success are in the top or bottom thirds, suggesting a directional or non-directional trade, respectively, I next screen for 1) suitability of the options grid, including open interest of three figures or greater on the strike prices I would need to use to build a position, 2) implied volatility in the 60th percentile or greater of its 12-month range, and 3) the absence of an earnings announcement within the lifespan of the like options series I would trade.

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 15, 2016

References

Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options, a description of how I trade, can be read here.

 Alerts

Two social media feeds provide notification whenever something new is posted.
Disclaimer
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.
License

 Creative Commons License

 All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

 Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.Tss s ss'ss
Posted by Tim Bovee at No comments:

Tuesday's Outcomes

This was clean-up day for the MAR-series options, which complete their trading at Friday's close.

Portions of my HES and TSLA positions were assigned. I got rid of the short shares that had been placed in my account and closed out the remaining call options entirely.

HES was a bear call spread, so it was closed entirely. TSLA was an iron condor, so losing the calls left  a bull put vertical spread set to expire valueless for maximum profit.

I exited the EMR bear call spread entirely for a loss.

I exited the calls in my DOW and PG positions, leaving zombie bull put spreads of no value for profitable expirations.

I entered no new positions today. My one prospect, an earnings play on ORCL, never reached implied volatility high enough to support a trade.

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 15, 2016

References

Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options, a description of how I trade, can be read here.

 Alerts

Two social media feeds provide notification whenever something new is posted.
Disclaimer
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.
License

 Creative Commons License

 All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

 Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.
Posted by Tim Bovee at No comments:

Tuesday's Agenda

ORCL, a potential earnings play, is the sole prospect on my desk today. Implied volatility remains low, at the 50th percentile of its most recent range, and I am rejecting the trade without a full analysis. My guidelines require implied volatility in the 60th percentile or higher.

I shall keep an eye on ORCL during the day and if volatility increases enough to meet my guidelines, then I'll proceed with an analysis.

The MAR series of the options is nearing expiration. Portions of my TSLA iron condor was assigned overnight. Positions on DOW, EMR, and PG are also in the money and nearing expiration.

I shall report on all exits in the Outcomes post near the market close.

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 15, 2016

References

Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options, a description of how I trade, can be read here.

 Alerts

Two social media feeds provide notification whenever something new is posted.
Disclaimer
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.
License

 Creative Commons License

 All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

 Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.
Posted by Tim Bovee at No comments:

Monday, March 14, 2016

Tuesday's Prospects

On Monday, March 14:

Of 485 large-cap stocks and exchange-traded funds in my analytical universe, three broke beyond their 20-day price channels, all to the upside. None survived initial screening.

There is one prospect for a trade coinciding with an earnings announcements.

I shall do further analysis on Tuesday, March 15.

Earnings season begins April 11. The higher pace of announcements will continue for about four weeks.

Potential trades keyed to events

The dates are those of the events, all of them earns announcements. Events prior to the opening bell are marked "am", during the trading day "mid", and after the closing bell "pm".

Tuesday pm
ORCL
Wednesday am
(none)

ORCL's implied volatility stands at the 47th percentile of its most recent range, too low to support a trade. I shall report my final decision in Tuesday's Agenda post.

Methodology

 The stocks in my analytical universe all have analyst coverage through the stock-ranking company Zacks Investment Research. Not all of the exchange-traded funds are so covered.

I screen the symbols for historical odds of a profitable signal in the direction of the breakout for the past 12 months.

For symbols whose odds of success are in the top or bottom thirds, suggesting a directional or non-directional trade, respectively, I next screen for 1) suitability of the options grid, including open interest of three figures or greater on the strike prices I would need to use to build a position, 2) implied volatility in the 60th percentile or greater of its 12-month range, and 3) the absence of an earnings announcement within the lifespan of the like options series I would trade.

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 14, 2016

References

Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options, a description of how I trade, can be read here.

 Alerts

Two social media feeds provide notification whenever something new is posted.
Disclaimer
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.
License

 Creative Commons License

 All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

 Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.Tss s ss'ss
Posted by Tim Bovee at No comments:

Monday's Outcomes

I rejected a bull signal on HD without a full analysis because of low implied volatility and placed no trades today.

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 14, 2016

References

Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options, a description of how I trade, can be read here.

 Alerts

Two social media feeds provide notification whenever something new is posted.
Disclaimer
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.
License

 Creative Commons License

 All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

 Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.
Posted by Tim Bovee at No comments:

Monday's Agenda

HD's bull signal on Friday was accompanied by low implied volatility. I kept it as a prospect on the off chance that volatility might rise. It didn't, and I'm rejecting HD without further analysis.

HD also has low odds of success, and a low-odds, low-volatility play would be a perfect candidate for a time spread, such as a diagonal, or a shares-options combo, such as a covered call. However, I've set that strategy aside for now; the exit rules were unclear and the positions, unproductive.

That leaves no prospects on my desk, and I shall not be entering any new positions today.

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 14, 2016

References

Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options, a description of how I trade, can be read here.

 Alerts

Two social media feeds provide notification whenever something new is posted.
Disclaimer
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.
License

 Creative Commons License

 All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

 Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.
Posted by Tim Bovee at No comments:

Sunday, March 13, 2016

The Week Ahead: FOMC, Prices, Retail, Housing, Witches

The Federal Open Market Committee holds a major meeting on Wednesday, complete with fresh forecasts and a news conference. Look for the money policy statement and forecasts at 2 p.m. New York time. Chair Janet Yellen meets with reporters at 2:30 p.m.

Appropriately, the meeting coms amid a week of fresh data on prices: The producer price index on Tuesday and the consumer price index on Wednesday, each at 8:30 a.m.

Two sector reports are on the calendar: retail sales on Tuesday and housing starts on Wednesday, each at 8:30 a.m.

The week ends with a quadruple witching day with stock index futures and optons, stock options and single stock futures all expiring on the same day. The confluence, usually, produces higher volume.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

 Average weekly initial claims for unemployment from the jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.

 Building permits for new private homes from housing starts at 8:30 a.m. Wednesday.

 Index of consumer expectations from the University of Michigan consumer sentiment report at 10 a.m. Friday.

 The index of leading indicators, although not itself a leading indicator, boils down the various indicators into a single number that serves as a convenient "You Are Here" marker for the business cycle.

Events arranged by day:

Tuesday: Producer price index, retail sales and the Empire State manufacturing survey of conditions in New York, each at 8:30 a.m., business inventories and the Home Builders housing market index, each at 10 a.m., and the Treasury international capital report tracking inflows and outflows of capital between the United States and the rest of the world.

Wednesday:  Consumer price index and housing starts, each at 9:30 a.m., industrial production at 9:15 a.m., petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m., the FOMC meeting announcement and release of FOMC forecasts, each at 2 p.m., and Fed Chair Janet Yellen's news conference at 2:30 p.m.

Thursday:  Jobless claims and the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank business outlook survey, each at 8:30 a.m., the job openings and labor turnover survey at 10 a.m. and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.

Friday: Consumer sentiment at 10 a.m. and a quadruple witching day at the markets.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate based on U.S. Treasury yields, which presently stands at 1.51%, up 0.05% from a week earlier.

Treasury Debt

Bills
  • 4-week: Announcement Monday 11 a.m., auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 3-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 6-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m., settlement Thursday.
Notes
  • None.
Bonds
  • None.
TIPS
  • 10-year: Auction Thursday 1 p.m.
Fedsters

In addition to Fed Chair Janet Yellen's news conference on Tuesday at 2:30 p.m., the week will see public appearances by three other FOMC members, all on Friday: New York Fed Pres. William Dudley, St. Louis Fed Pres. James Bullard and Boston Fed Pres. Eric Rosengren.

 Analytical universe

This week I shall be analyzing new trading signals from among 485 large-cap stocks and exchange-traded funds.

Good trading!
-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 13, 2016

References


Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options, a description of how I trade, can be read here.

Alerts
Two social media feeds provide notification whenever something new is posted.
Disclaimer
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.
License

Creative Commons License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Tim Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com
Posted by Tim Bovee at No comments:

Friday, March 11, 2016

Monday's Prospects

On Friday, March 11:

Of 485 large-cap stocks and exchange-traded funds in my analytical universe, 22 broke beyond their 20-day price channels, all to the upside.

One symbol with a trading signal having low odds of success survived initial screening, having broken out to the upside. Low-odds symbols are candidates for non-directional trades

There are no prospects for trades coinciding with earnings announcements.

I shall do further analysis on Monday, March 14.

Earnings season begins April 11. The higher pace of announcements will continue for about four weeks.

Trading signal survivors

High-odds
Bull
(none)

High-odds
Bear
(none)

Low-odds
Bull
HD

Low-odds
Bear
(none)

The prospect, HD, also has low implied volatility and will be rejected Monday morning if volatility fails to rise sufficiently.

Methodology

 The stocks in my analytical universe all have analyst coverage through the stock-ranking company Zacks Investment Research. Not all of the exchange-traded funds are so covered.

I screen the symbols for historical odds of a profitable signal in the direction of the breakout for the past 12 months.

For symbols whose odds of success are in the top or bottom thirds, suggesting a directional or non-directional trade, respectively, I next screen for 1) suitability of the options grid, including open interest of three figures or greater on the strike prices I would need to use to build a position, 2) implied volatility in the 60th percentile or greater of its 12-month range, and 3) the absence of an earnings announcement within the lifespan of the like options series I would trade.

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 11, 2016

References

Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options, a description of how I trade, can be read here.

 Alerts

Two social media feeds provide notification whenever something new is posted.
Disclaimer
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.
License

 Creative Commons License

 All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

 Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.Tss s ss'ss
Posted by Tim Bovee at No comments:

Friday's Outcomes

The short call leg of my KO iron condor was assigned overnight, dumping a short holding of KO shares into my account. I've described how I responded in an update to the analysis.

In the Agenda post I said that I would look at exiting the remaining positions expiring March 19. I've decided to wait until early next week to clear those positions.

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 11, 2016

References

Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options, a description of how I trade, can be read here.

 Alerts

Two social media feeds provide notification whenever something new is posted.
Disclaimer
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.
License

 Creative Commons License

 All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

 Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.
Posted by Tim Bovee at No comments:

Friday's Agenda

I have no potential earnings plays or viable trading signals on my desk this morning, so I plan no new analyses of possible new positions.

One leg of my iron condor on KO was assigned overnight and I shall be dealing with that this morning and shall report on what I did  in the Outcomes post near the market close.

It's also time to exit the that complete trading on March 19 and I shall make decisions today about how to handle those positions, in DOW, EMR, PG and TSLA.

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 11, 2016

References

Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options, a description of how I trade, can be read here.

 Alerts

Two social media feeds provide notification whenever something new is posted.
Disclaimer
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.
License

 Creative Commons License

 All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

 Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.
Posted by Tim Bovee at No comments:

Thursday, March 10, 2016

Friday's Prospects

On Thursday, March 10:

Of 501 large-cap stocks and exchange-traded funds in my analytical universe, four broke beyond their 20-day price channels, all to the upside. Non survived initial screening.

There are no prospects for trades coinciding with earnings announcements.

Lacking prospects, I shall do no further analysis on Friday, March 11.

Earnings season begins April 11. The higher pace of announcements will continue for about four weeks.

Methodology

 The stocks in my analytical universe all have analyst coverage through the stock-ranking company Zacks Investment Research. Not all of the exchange-traded funds are so covered.

I screen the symbols for historical odds of a profitable signal in the direction of the breakout for the past 12 months.

For symbols whose odds of success are in the top or bottom thirds, suggesting a directional or non-directional trade, respectively, I next screen for 1) suitability of the options grid, including open interest of three figures or greater on the strike prices I would need to use to build a position, 2) implied volatility in the 60th percentile or greater of its 12-month range, and 3) the absence of an earnings announcement within the lifespan of the like options series I would trade.

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 10, 2016

References

Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options, a description of how I trade, can be read here.

 Alerts

Two social media feeds provide notification whenever something new is posted.
Disclaimer
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.
License

 Creative Commons License

 All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

 Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.Tss s ss'ss
Posted by Tim Bovee at No comments:

Thursday's Outcomes

We are stuck in the doldrums, with not a breath of wind to ruffle our sails, or sales even. The markets lay as still a flat and glassy equatorial sea.

I had no potential earnings plays. No trading signal from yesterday's session survived initial screening. I closed none of my existing positions.

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 10, 2016

References

Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options, a description of how I trade, can be read here.

 Alerts

Two social media feeds provide notification whenever something new is posted.
Disclaimer
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.
License

 Creative Commons License

 All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

 Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.
Posted by Tim Bovee at No comments:
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