Thursday, December 8, 2016

Moving to WordPress

I have moved Private Trader from the Blogger platform to WordPress.

The current URLs:

On WordPress, for new posts: timbovee.com

On Blogger, for older posts, timbovee.blogspot.com

All internal links on older posts to www.timbovee.com are not invalid. Copy the link and manually change the domains to timbovee.blogspot.com to access the material.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Dec. 9, 2016

Thursday's Agenda

Blogger's, like yesterday, won't let me publish long-form posts. Going short....

I shall look at FNSR today as a potential earnings play.

I have closed COST for a profit after earnings were published.


Wednesday, December 7, 2016

Thursday's Prospects

Blogger is still not allowing me to close files properly through the browser interface, so I'm having to go through the iPhone app and shall be brief.

One prospect for Thursday, a potential earnings play on FNSR.

Also, I shall keep an eye on trades posted on Dough.

Wednesday's Outcomes

I entered three positions, two on my analysis and one based on a Dough trade.

The two earnings plays I entered are COST and HRB. I also analyzed CIEN but declined to take the trade.

The volatility play posted on Dough was for XLF.

Blogger, the platform upon which PrivateTrader runs, was semi-trashed today in its web browser interface. It wouldn't allow me post analyses I had saved, nor could I successfully type more than a sentence or two before it crashed.

So I sent briefs on my iPhone app for Blogger. I'll post the full analyses once Blogger gets back in the game. (And indeed, I'm typing this using the browser interface, which is a good sign.)

FXE Analysis

Blogger is trashed big time except on my iPhone, so briefly.

Entered volatility play on XLF based on trade by Ryan at Dough -- www.dough.com.

Iron fly, short the $23 calls and puts, long the $25 calls and $21 puts.

Premium: $1.40.

COST Analysis

Blogger won't allow me to publish full analyses, so in brief:

I have entered an earnings play on COST structured as follows:

JAN series of options, which trades for the last time Jan. 20.

Iron fly, short the $150 calls and long the $160 calls, short the $150 puts and long the 140 puts.

The premium is $6.45.

CIEN Analysis

Blogger won't allow me to post full analyses. So, briefly:

I have passed on CIEN as an earnings play because I can't get a wide enough profit zone to cover post-earnings moves

Wednesday's Agenda

I shall be looking at three potential earnings plays: CIEN, COST and HRB.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Dec. 7, 2016

Tuesday, December 6, 2016

Wednesday's Prospects

Screening of the Tuesday, Dec. 6 markets identified three prospective high options volatility trades.

Three prospects will publish earnings and so are candidates for options volatility trades. They are CIEN, COST and HRB.

I shall make final trading decisions on Wednesday, Dec. 7.

I shall also consider trades posted on Dough as part of my current learning project.

I have suspended work on my small lots shares approach through December until I determine how to move forward, given the poor trading results of July through October. See Small Lots Approach: Analysis 7/2016 through 10/2016.

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Dec. 6, 2016


The FINTECH Book: The Financial Technology Handbook for Investors, Entrepreneus and Visionaries
by Susanne Chishti

Tuesday's Outcomes

I completed the exit of my 440-day-old diagonal spread on UNG, and in updating the original post I ponder three valuable lessons.

I entered a position on IWM based a trade posted on Dough.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Dec. 6, 2016


Visual Intelligence: Sharpen Your Perception, Change Your Life
by Amy E. Herman

IWM Analysis

iShares Russell 2000 (IWM)

This trading idea came from Dough trader Ryan.

I shall use the JAN06 series of options, which trades for the last time 31 days hence, on Jan. 6.

Implied volatility stands at 18%, which stands in the 16th percentile of its annual range. The price used for analysis was $221.22.

Ryan's trade differs from my normal practice in that implied volatility is low in relation to its annual range, and similarly low in relation to its most recent move. Here's his structure.

Iron condor, short the $132.50 calls and long the $137.50 calls,
short the $132.50 puts and long the $125.5 puts,
sold for a credit and expiring Jan. 7.
Probability of expiring out-of-the-money

JAN07StrikeOTMΔ
Upper132.5039.6%62
Lower132.5058.3%40

The premium is $3.83, which is 77% of the width of the position’s wings.

The risk/reward ratio is 0.8:1.

Decision for My Account

I have entered a position on IWM as described above. The shares at the time of entry were priced at $134.13.

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Dec. 6, 2016


The Social Organism: A Radical Understanding of Social Media to Transform Your Business and Life
by Alex Cuadros


Monday, December 5, 2016

Tuesday's Prospects

Screening of the Monday, Dec. 5 markets identified no prospective high options volatility trades.

Seven symbols from my pool have sufficiently high implied volatility or close to it to warrant further analysis:

COST
FXE
GDXJ
TBT
TLT
UNG
XLU

Each is disqualified: COST because earnings are near; FXE, TLT and UNG because I already hold positions; GDXJ and TBT because they they have the same underlying as positions I hold; and XLU because I recently passed on it after analysis.

Although I've been unable to find positions under my guidelines, I shall also consider trades posted on Dough as part of my current learning project.

I have suspended work on my small lots shares approach through December until I determine how to move forward, given the poor trading results of July through October. See Small Lots Approach: Analysis 7/2016 through 10/2016.


-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Dec. 5, 2016


A Field Guide to Lies: Critical Thinking in the Information Age
by Daniel J. Levitin


Monday's Outcomes

I analyzed XLU but declined to enter a position.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Dec. 5, 2016


JFK and the Reagan Revolution: A Secret History of American Prosperity
by Lawrence Kudlow

XLU Analysis

Utilities SPDR ETF (XLU)

I shall use the JAN series of options, which trades for the last time 46 days hence, on Jan. 20.

Implied volatility stands at 20%, which stands in the 51st percentile of its annual range and the 44th percentile of the most recent rise. The price used for analysis was $46.68.

Here is a chart of XLU's daily implied volatility since late August.

XLU Implied Volatility, 8/25/2016 to 12/5/2016

Although the implied volatility's annual range, must barely, means my guideline that implied volatility be in the upper half of its movement for the past 12 months, the most recent range is somewhat lower.

And the implied volatility movement is ambiguous. Does the decline over the last few days mean there is no way XLU will reach the 50th percentile? Or is it a pullback preparatory to a further rise?

In either case, it's not reasonable time to enter a short options play, which relies on a decline in implied volatility for part its profit.

Decision for My Account

I am declining to enter a position on XLU because of the trend in its implied volatility.

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Dec. 5, 2016


Visual Guide to Elliott Wave Trading
by Wayne Gorman

Monday's Agenda

I shall look at XLU as a volatility play. I'm deferring analysis on the week's four potential earnings plays until Wednesday for CIEN, COST and HRB, and Thursday for FNSR.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Dec. 5, 2016


Black Swan Start-ups: Understanding the Rise of Successful Technology Business in Unlikely Places
by Sami Mahroum

Sunday, December 4, 2016

The Week Ahead: International trade

The week after the monthly jobs report is always a slow one in economics. There is but one major economics report coming up this week: International trade, on Tiuesday at 8:30 a.m.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

Manufacturers' new ordrs for consumer goods and materials from the factory orders report at 10 a.m. Tuesday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment from the jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.

Index of consumer expectations from the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey at 10 a.m. Friday.

Manufacturers' new orders for non-defense capital goods from the factory orders report at 10 a.m. Tuesday.



The Rise and Fall of American Growth
by Robert J. Gordon