Monday, January 18, 2010

Private Trader Reader's Guide

The Private Trader market letter at www.timbovee.com tracks trades on my own accounts, in real time, as I make them, with explanations of why I chose to make each trade.

My goal is to share with readers the trading approaches and techniques, and mental attitudes, that I have found to be useful, through book reviews, long-term studies and trading techniques and theory.

Theory without practice is of little use in the real world of the markets. I have often, during decades in the markets, wished that I could trade alongside someone, so we could both learn from each others successes and mistakes.

So every day I'm hands on in the markets, focusing the day with the Morningline,  scanning for and analyzing possible trades during the market day, positioning for the crucial last half hour of trading with the Watchlist, posts telling about my trades -- what I did and why did it -- moments after they happen, analyses of trades gone bad (and good!), the Almanac setup for the next trading day, specialized scans for covered calls, and subtle jabs at Jim Cramer on every possible occasion.

It's the difference between hiking alone or with a friend. I'll take the friend on any trail. . . .

Nothing on this website constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this market letter is to provide education.

In reading Private Trader, it is important that you remember that no trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

Here is when things happen (times are Eastern):

9:30 a.m., Stock markets open
10 a.m. - 10:30 a.m., Morningline posted
10:30 a.m. onward, Scans for possible trades, new positions, adjustments to existing positions.
2:30 p.m. - 3 p.m., Watchlist posted

4 p.m., Markets close
After 4 p.m., Almanac posted

My positions are either stock options, including covered calls, or for lower-priced and less liquid issues, the stocks themselves. My ideal holding period is under two weeks. Generally, I prefer to get in and out of a positions as quickly as possible.

I also enter income producing positions.

I am mindful of the the SEC restrictions limiting day trades to four a week on accounts of less than $25,000.

My analysis is normally done on three-month charts showing one candlestick or closing price per day, but I also look at the three-year daily chart, the decade-long monthly chart, and even the very short term 133-tick chart.

You can receive Private Trader alerts on Facebook and Twitter.

Some abbreviations you'll run across:

adx - Average Directional Index, a measure of the degree to which a stock is trending directionally rather than moving sideways. See Stockcharts, Wikipedia and Investopedia.

bb - Bollinger Bands, a measure of volatility using lines that are two standard deviations from a moving average. See John Bollinger's website, Stockcharts, Wikipedia and Investopedia.

ma, sma -  Moving Average, often followed by a number indicating the period, such as ma20, sma50, ma200 and so forth. An average of closing prices over a certain period of time that shows trends more clearly by smoothing short-term fluctuations. When I use ma, I mean the simple moving average (sma), which gives equal rate to each closing price used in the calculation. See Stockcharts, Wikipedia and Investopedia.

macd - Moving Average Convergence Divergence, subtracts a longer moving average from a shorter moving average to calculate momentum. See Stockcharts, Wikipedia and Investopedia.

mfi - Money Flow Index, a volume-weighted measure of money flowing into and out of an issue. See Stockcharts, Wikipedia and Investopedia.

pps - Person's Proprietary Signal, a buy/sell signal designed by John Person. It's inner workings have not made public.

adx - Average Directional Index, a measure of the degree to which a stock is trending directionally rather than moving sideways. See Stockcharts, Wikipedia and Investopedia. It was designed by J. Wells Wilder Jr.




rsi - Relative Strength Index, also a measure of money flowing into and out of an issue, but without the volume component. See Stockcharts, Wikipedia and Investopedia.


sto, stochatic - Stochastic Oscillator, calculates the relationship between the current close to the high-low range over a period of time. See Stockcharts, Wikipedia and Investopedia.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader is copyright 2009-2010 by Timothy K. Bovee. All rights reserved.

Quotations of up to 200 words each are allowed. No need for permission, but please let me know what you've used. See the next paragraph for how to get in touch.

Please send all correspondence, including requests for permission to republish content, to the email address or mailing address that appears in the Contact section on the left sidebar.

4 comments:

  1. Tim,

    Nice to find your site & blog. We seem to be somewhat similar - I have had some success in the options market the last couple of years, but I've had to learn the hard way (I think everyone has to - there is no "magic bullet" or learning system which makes one a good trader.)

    I was drawn to your site primarily because of the similarities of trading. I like to get in and out of positions quickly. I trade highly volatile options and look for spreads and covered calls primarily. I'm perfectly happy with 10-20% hitters rather than the long, higher percentage trades. I utilize tight stops, exercise rigid controls (I've probably lost some gainers in the past, but when that delta hits .20 on the short side, I'm out, no matter what.)

    I'd really like to hear what you have to say on gamma trading, using standard deviations as a tool, and the like. I think I'd probably learn something.

    I like your down-to-earth style, lack of ubiquitous lingo, and seemingly open/transparent prose. Keep up the good work.

    Best,
    John Ware

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  2. John,

    Thanks for sharing your approach. We do indeed have a lot of similarities in style, especially in going for consistent high-probability base hits rather than trying to slam a home run over the fence with every trade.

    I've been thinking to write something on the options greeks and approaches to trading, and will do so during the next couple of weeks, using your posting as a jumping off point.

    I think the gammas are a perfectly good tool for structuring positions. I tend to focus more on the thetas, because I've had such good results when time decay is on my side, that is, when my position is net short the options.

    Best,

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  3. I am so glad I found your web/blog site via FaceBook/Twitter. I trade options (mostly credit spreads)and am totally impressed with your informative and insightful posts, alerts, and comments. Are you the gentleman who has appeared on CNBC's Fast $$ program from time to time?? At any rate, I can appreciate the time and effort you must expend in keeping these pages so fresh and interesting. BTW, I would look forward to reading your comments re option greeks as mentioned above. Good Trades, Steve

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  4. Steve,

    Glad you're finding the site to be useful. In answer to your question, I've never appeared on CNBC, and don't really agree with their approach. I think they get too caught up in the story and the drama of stocks.

    My approach is purely technical -- I'm not concerned with the earnings, the balance sheet, the executive suite or the competition.

    And I have found that I trade best when I'm a bit bored by it all. CNBC-style drama, in my book, tends to cloud the judgment and produce bad trades.

    So, even if they were to ask me to go on (and they haven't), I don't think CNBC and I would be a good mix.

    Best,
    Tim

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