1/12 Watchlist: SPY, many etfs show bear signals; Fear flies;

Blue chips (SPY) show a pps bear signal on a decline of 1.1% from Monday's close. The mfi and stochastic are falling toward their respective 80-lines. The macd remains in bull territory. The price remains above the 20-day moving average.

The decline is consistent with a minor pullback within an uptrend that began in early March 2008. A decline below the ma20 would suggest a larger decline, such as that seen in June and July last year, as well as in September, October and November.

The blue chips' bear signal coincides with a gap up and sharp rise in volatility (VIX, the fear index). It is trading 9.2% above Monday's close.

Gold (GLD) also shows a bear signal and a 2.2% drop from yesterday's close, with the 20-day moving average below the 50-day moving average but the price above the 50-day. Oil (USO) shows a similar pattern with a pps bear signal.

Bear signals all over the major exchange-traded funds. See below

Otherwise, the signals on indicators and currencies remain as described in the Morningline.

Here's what's interesting among high-volume . . .

. . . exchange-traded funds:

• XLF, the financials etf, pps and stochastic bear signals amid a flat trend.
  
• Bear signals, of the pps type, among nearly all of the 800-pound gorillas: QQQQ (Nasdaq), EEM (emerging markets), IWM (Russell 2000), EWT (Taiwan), XLE (energy), SMH (semi-conductors), XRT (retail), XLB (materials).

I won't be trading any of these today. I want to see if a new trend is established (lower highs, lower lows). The move suggests that my near-term bias should be on the bear side.

. . . corporate shares:

• X, trading in the low 60s, is in a nice uptrend with no serious resistance until the mid-80s. I'm putting it down as a maybe.
• AET has pierced its ma20 and is moving toward the ma50 in what appears to be a downtrend that began in December. It has whipsawed a bit this month, but a new pps bear signal today comes with a decisive move down.
• MS, a pps bear signal suggests renewal of its downward slide.

Among holdings,

• My January KO iron triangle (p50/-p52.5/-c57.5/c60) is trading at the upper end of profitability and has no market so I can close it (although I'm trying). It shows a pps bull signal today.
• My February MRVL bull put spread (p20/-p22.5) is down 3.9% from today's open and is showing a pps bear signal. However, it has not pierced resistance, so I'm holding on for now.

Trader's Bookshelf

Topics S&P 500, SPDR, Spiders, Treasury bonds, gold, precious metals, oil, petroleum, Coca-Cola, Marvell Technology, financial, Nasdaq, emerging markets, Russell 2000, Taiwan,energy,semiconductors, retail retailers big-box stores, building materials, U.S. Steel, Aetna, Morgan Stanley.